Will Dion/Rae agree to step aside for Ignatieff to be Prime Minister?

So what happens to the Liberal leadership race? Surely a Minister can't run against his own sitting PM.

 

M. Spector wrote:

So the NDP's lust for semi-power at any cost is going to result in Ignatieff becoming PM.

The NDP will never live this folly down.

It's a devil's gambit. The alternative was certain death.

Who's this John Ivison guy? Some comedian just making this stuff up?

I really don't care who the Liberals have as PM. I think that any ideological difference between him and Dion or Rae are highly, highly exagerrated. These guys are all Liberals - they don't believe in anything anyways other than following public opinion. Why should I care if the PM is Ignatieff - its as if I'm going to fall in love with ANYONE who is a Liberal PM. Realistically, Iggy probably has the Liberal leadership sewn up anyways and I think that if there is to be a coalition government where the NDP has this much power and where there are also policy concessions to the BQ - its probably inevitable that the PM would have to be someone NOT associated with the left of the Liberal Party (if there even is such a thing)

If these reports are all accurate, this must be Ignatieff's dream come true.  Things could not have gone better for him, right down the prorogation. 

 If Harper does that, he surrenders any possible legitimacy to claiming democratic authority, while at the same time postively forcing the opposition to take him down at the first opportunity.  Giving Ignatieff a couple of months to get ensconsed as leader, during which time he can appear on the news every day hammering the PM for not facing the elected representatives of the people?

It's almost too much to believe.  Harper has become a caricature of all of his failings.

"So we get Ignatief installed as PM with no say from the electorate?"

Parties have a right to choose their leaders however they want. Its not up to the NDP or any of us to pas judgment on what mechanism the Liberals want to use. There have been many, many cases of PMs and Premiers being installed with no say from the electorate. This is what happens when a sitting PM resigns or dies in mid-term and their party picks a new leader. Ernie Eves was Premier of Ontario for two years when he took over from Harris.

The Canadian public does not elect a Prime Minister. We elect a PARLIAMENT and it is the role of the MPs to choose the PM. 

Stockholm wrote:

Parties have a right to choose their leaders however they want. Its not up to the NDP or any of us to pas judgment on what mechanism the Liberals want to use. There have been many, many cases of PMs and Premiers being installed with no say from the electorate. This is what happens when a sitting PM resigns or dies in mid-term and their party picks a new leader. Ernie Eves was Premier of Ontario for two years when he took over from Harris.

The Canadian public does not elect a Prime Minister. We elect a PARLIAMENT and it is the role of the MPs to choose the PM.

Thanks for the civics lesson.

But what some people may be having trouble swallowing is that Iggy gets to become PM only with the consent and blessing of the NDP and the Bloc.

Stockholm wrote:

If you really think that there is no ideological difference WHATSOEVER between Harper and Ignatieff, Rae or Dion then why doesn't Harper offer the NDP six cabinet portfolios and a majhor say on government economic and social policies???

Well put.

 

[i][b]Brian Topp[/b]: Our friends on the blue team seem to mostly focus on sticks, and not so much on carrots. ;)[/i]

Harper is about 12 seats short of a majority so i guess 12 Liberals would have to do that - but the thing is that most of the rightwing rural Liberals who might have ever done such a thing were either defeated or retired in the last election. The current Liberal caucus is almost entirely composed of people from Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver with a sprinkling from Atlantic Canada. There would be no advantage to any of those people joining the Tories.

What's more likely is that some "red Tory" types in the Conservative caucus would join the new government. I already saw in the NDP taped caucus meeting that Bill Casey is onside with the coalition.

Stockholm wrote:

If you really think that there is no ideological difference WHATSOEVER between Harper and Ignatieff, Rae or Dion...

Did I say that?

Your usual debating tactic: distort and exaggerate what others say and then attack the distortion.

I can turn the tables on you: If you really don't care who is the Liberal leader/PM, are you really saying that there is no ideological difference WHATSOEVER between Ignatieff, Rae, or Dion?

Stupid, right?

Quote:

...then why doesn't Harper offer the NDP six cabinet portfolios and a majhor say on government economic and social policies???

Oh, I'm sure you'd jump at that one. Harper would suddenly become someone you could "work with" as soon as a whiff of quasi-power is dangled before your nose.

It's crass and shameless opportunism. But no surprise really for anyone with zero political principles.

What's up with the headline? I can't find a word about proroguing anywhere on any news site...

Robert Fife claims Harper is going to prorogue...but I trust Robert Fife about as much as SH at this point.

No other news source is reporting the prorogue as far as I know. 

Just to clarify, in later editions of the CTV National News, after their earlier "scoop" of the caucus tape kind of fizzled as their big exclusive story of the night, Fife added in to the end of his double-ender with Sandi the prorogation rumour, which I assume he lifted from Stephen Taylor's blog.

As I said in another thread, if they prorogue without passing their own Economic Statement, then everything they said last Friday about how we would be hurting seniors by not passing the Ways & Means motion to adopt the provision about delaying RRIF withdrawals is proven to be BS, plus the Commons would just go crazy anyway.  Harper would look so desperate and autocratic it would backfire terribly ... I can't believe they would try it, but really who knows what dumb thing they're going to try next.

it's "prorogue" actually.

Well, people seem to have finally noticed this is by no means necessarily true that Iggy has been chosen. I was skeptical the minute i heard it. and here's what I posted in one of th other threads:

I don't think the talk of Iggy camp scuttling the coalition, or of Iggy being the PM now comes from the Cons sowing stories.

I think they are plants to keep things churning, but they come from Iggy's camp.

So on the one hand they have Iggy giving the official line- "I'm 100% behind this." And at the same time they are working to keep alive that enough cracks begin to show that they can more openly cast doubt on the whole thing.

I wouldn't rule out that the Liberals choose Iggy to be Leader and PM. But it seems unlikely. Why would Rae agree to that? He has de facto veto power, and many others would not like it either.

And I agree that in the final analysis it doesn't matter who the Liberals choose.

The PMO is not going to be running this show. In fact, we're in for a demonstration of all the downfalls of government by committee in a political culture with no experience in that. It will be good for us. Plus lots of wincing and entertainment.

 

Dion has absolute veto power over any attempt to replace him- whether its another true interim Leader like Goodale or Iggy.

And Rae has de facto veto power over installing Iggy. Doesn't matter how much of a majority of Caucus members Iggy could pull together- even by themselves neither Rae or even Dion are sufficiently isolated to be bullied or rolled over, let alone the internal tractuion they have with no more than a single discusssion between them.

And Iggy attempting a coup would be showing FAR more signs than a single source talking to a reporter. That cannot be done quietly.

Sources close to Mr. Ignatieff said he was "not wild" about the idea of forming a government propped up by the separatist Bloc. They said he was inclined to accept the concessions wrung out of the Tories on its fiscal update and allow the government to survive.

"My gut is Michael will cause all this to fall apart. He doesn't like this," said the insider.

http://tinyurl.com/5pmvh3

I still think that if Ignatieff is the one who causes this to fall apart - it would destroy his chances of winning the leadership since so many Liberals would never forgive him for that.

I heard on the radio that Rae denied that a deal had been made to install Ignatieff and he said that the Liberal CAUCUS would decide that. CAUCUS!! Well apparently the Liberal caucus is meeting today and supposedly most caucus members are Ignatieff supporters so if its up to the CAUCUS - then either Ignatieff is in or they pick a pro-Ignatieff interim leader.

Stockholm wrote:

I still think that if Ignatieff is the one who causes this to fall apart - it would destroy his chances of winning the leadership since so many Liberals would never forgive him for that.

Not to mention the fact that this would abandon the centre-left field to the NDP. "I tried to work with the Liberals, I even offered them a coalition. Some of them turned out to be Conservatives with red ties."

 

I don't understand the rush to get a new leader in in time for the
coup. The seats won by the Liberals were won under Dion's leadership.
It makes some sense to keep him as interim leader, perhaps getting in
writing from him that he will step down when the time comes. It not
only keeps the situation more stable, but I have this feeling, based on
little factual evidence, that Dion might not be a bad leader for a
coalition. I don't think he is the type who needs to be the ultimate
Fearless Leader making all the decisions and taking all the credit.
Some others, however, might be.

I would think the others would want
to wait to see what becomes of this. Spring is not that far off. Dion
would be the best to take this shaky alliance into the spring and the
leadership convention. As was planned.

 

The Ignatieff camp was leaking disinformation on Friday that the NDP was insisting they wouldn't accept Dion as PM and he'd have to step aside - something the NDP quickly denied and attributed to an unnamed Liberal leadership campaign.

Because it's being done in such a frenzied manner, giving people little
time for thought. This is rarely a good way to do things, and may just
lead to more fracturing. Also, having the time we thought we were going
to have would give the contenders that much more time to blunder if
need be, to reveal to us their true colours, and for possibly a new and
better solution to arise. Just my thoughts.

A Liberal friend of mine says that Goodale is associated with the Rae camp- if that is true (which is probably subjective depending upon which LIberals you talk too)- then Dion would be a more honest broker/interim leader until the race.

Dion stepping aside at this point wouldn't do much good- the two former roommates appear intent on taking the leadership to May 2. I think having another interim leader, even if one could be found who isn't perceived as associated with either camp- wouldn't be adding or removing any poison from the chalice of power passed from an interim to a new leader.

 

I agree with jas- time to see the how the leadership candidates respond in a coalition gov't would be nice.

 Personally, I think Rae has so much to gain by having a chance to prove his statesmanship (esp. vis a vis the NDP caucus, and the left wing of the Liberal party), that there is no way he'll let Iggy take power. Having the support of 50 of 77 MPs (and where exatly does this figure come from, other than Iggy camp spin?) won't allow Iggy to grasp the reins. Iggy would need to call riding presidents, youth leaders etc....and he can't do that quietly and without upsetting a chance for a coalition.

 

Question for those who know NDP popular, and federal caucus support better than I:

There is a perception that Rae is 'persona-non-grata' to dippers...but how long would that last in a situation where they sit down in caucus together and everybody has two swallow the lesser of two weevils?

NDP Caucus members will live with Rae fine. PM or not, they are going to be dealing with him a lot. Thats life. I'm sure they already know that.

Politics is like other work: you spend a lot of time with colleagues in your own party, let alone the others, many of whom not only would you not choose to associate with them, but you don't like a lot of things about them.