Since I've already started threads for the [url=http://www.rabble.ca/babble/western-provinces/new-westminster-coquitlam-... Westminster-Coquitlam[/url] and [url=http://www.rabble.ca/babble/introductions/cumberland-colchester-musquodo... Valley[/url] byelections, I thought I better start one here, too.
* [url=http://www.elections.ca/scripts/pss/Profile.aspx?L=E&ED=24058&EV=99&EV_T... Canada constituency profile[/url]
Any word on the potential contenders? Will Mario run for the Conservatives, or run for his life away from them, given how low their popularity has dipped in Quebec?
The only way the BQ could lose is if Mario Dumont ran for the Conservatives, so the questions are
I don't think either is likely. He's shown essentially no interest in federal politics in the past, and after years of being the boss of a party and saying what he thinks, Harper is not likely to be keen on extending an invitation to someone who will likely be a loose cannon.
It will be interesting to watch the popular vote here. Given all the hype about a Liberal recovery in Quebec, we SHOULD see a big increase in the Liberal popular vote - but will we?
Any chance the NDP could push the Conservatives into fourth place?
I know very little about Dumont or politics in Quebec, but here are some observations that would apply to wondering whether he will run / be asked.
The fact he never showed an interest in federal politics has a new light now. What else is he going to do? When politicians hit the end of a particular road, and are too young to retire, they suddenly view other political options in a new light. So unless he has some great business career to slide right into at the top, my guess is he would want to go for it.
And from Harper's end: it wouldn't be the first known loose cannon he took in, and they are REALLY desperate for something to hope to hang a Quebec revival on.
None. This was the natural territory of the ADQ.
Maybe not as much as it appears--in fact, if you factor out Dumont, RDL proper would probably be the least natural ADQ territory within the seat (as the 2008 federal results bore out: CPC did most poorly here). And as for the provincial constituencies that make up the balance of the seat, the Liberals either held in 2007 or barely lost only to take back in 2008.
Although there's enough natural ADQness (albeit more at the Montmagny end, what with its proximity to Beauce and the Quebec suburbs) that ensures a certain token residual base for the Tories...
Correct me if I am wrong, but aren't there going to be municipal elections in Quebec this fall?
One would think that the timing of the by-election would be to make sure it doesn't conflict with already scheduled municipal voting.
I'm predicting an August call for voting on September 22nd, to give Harper some good news to use against 'Emperor' Iggy should the Conservatives win at least one of the three vacant ridings. Then again, with the results in the recent Nova Scotia provincial election, Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley returning to the Conservative fold may not be a foregone conclusion any more!
The Tories have nothing to lose in these byelections. None are Tory seats. Even if the Tories lose all three byelections, the consolation prize for them might be to have the results be even more humilating for the Liberals - and there is potential for that. The Liberals are likely to be a distant third in NWC and may even be a distant fourth in CCMV if EMay runs and in MLKR the Liberals could also easily end up third.
Anyone know what the rules are about how long the by-election can be delayed?
Yes. Apparently it's a reason for thinking that a fall election is less likely.
Of the 4 provincial ridings that overlap the federal riding, the ADQ won 3 in 2007. They lost two to the PLQ in 2008; the PQ was shut out in all 4 in both 2007 and 2008. This is not fertile ground for the NDP.
It probably all depends on local candidate and resource allocation. The fact that people in that area have voted ADQ can also be a plus for the NDP because it indicates a willingness to not get herded into the PQ/BQ vs. Liberal template. Cumberland was supposedly the most infertile place in Nova Scotia for the NDP - until they elected someone there last week. The NDP actuaklly had a comparatively good showing in neighbouring Rimouski - so its not out of the question that they could come in third.
To be accurate, the NDP elected not one, not two, but three members in C.C.M.V. on June 9th, and came in second in the other two ridings.
Has there been any word from the 2008 NDP candidate, Gaston Hervieux, as to whether he would be standing forth again?
Here's the definitive word, in table form even, of when the various by-elections can be called.
More in 2004 and 2006, where Guy Caron noticeably overachieved relative to the rest of the province. But in 2008, he gained less than a point over his 2006 total--enough for a rebate; but now *below* par by provincial standards. A bit of an anticlimax (though a confused situation with the BQ incumbent running as an independent didn't help matters)
Given overall dynamics (unless that provincial 17% poll is more portent than blip), I'd more likely see the Liberals beating the Tories for second, than the NDP beating the Liberals for third.
I agree - the Liberals should finish 2nd based on current trends - they are the 2nd place party in Francophone Quebec behind the BQ nowadays. I'm not sure why some people would think the NDP would finish ahead of the Liberals in this riding.
Precisely, and calling the by-elections in mid-August for a mid-September vote is a perfect context for Harper avoiding a fall election, regardless of the results. In Qc in particular, the Nov 1 municipal elections coming right after the provincial by-election this Monday in Dumont's seat (which many analysts now think the PLQ has a decent chance of winning, suprisingly) and the federal by-election in M-L-K-RDL in September, election fatigue will be even more pronounced in Quebec than elsewhere.
Harper has every reason to want Dumont to run in the by-election, and he has been courting him aggressively for months if not years. Dumont attended Harper's big Montreal fundraiser a few weeks back, albeit as a "media commentator." Dumont running would give the CPC a very good chance of winning the seat, and it would be a guaranteed Cabinet post for Dumont if he did run and win. This is one of the few potential "game changers" left for Harper in Quebec, the question is whether Dumont will take the plunge or not.
Those previous ADQ results really don't mean much now - it was a Dumont vehicle almost exclusively, and they profited from the massive anti-Charest backlash among francophones in 2007 and the PQ's Boisclair debacle. None of those factors are present any longer, and it is pretty clear that either the PQ or PLQ will win Dumont's old seat on Monday, with the ADQ finishing way back.
Quebec voters are notoriously fickle and change allegiance pretty dramatically from one election to another, especially federally. It is always striking to me to review the 1988 federal results in Quebec, with Conservative MPs winning massive majorities of 60 and 70% and then to see the total PC wipeout in 1993. Who would have thought the Libs would have won the majority of seats in 2000 post-Clarity Act, or that Dion would do better in votes and seats in Qc in 2008 than Martin did in 2006? And of course, the most famous shift is from Trudeau winning 74 out of 75 seats in 1980 and then Mulroney sweeping in with 58 seats in 1984.
Well what will be interesting will be to wait and see what happens in the provincial by-elections tomorrow. That may be a clue for how the parties are doing provincially and how they might do federally, although of course the trends will not be identical between the two levels.
It's actually not that surprising that the PLQ may win in this riding tomorrow - they have been in contention all along according to articles back in the spring. Both the Liberals and PQ are pretty close in the polls in Quebec these days. What I don't understand is why Paul Crete gave up his federal seat to run in a provincial election he may not win. Seems a bit risky to me. Too many MP's play musical chairs and create unnecessary by-elections.
Btw, I'm not sure if Harper would want to call the by-election for the fall - I don't think it would put off a fall federal election anyway.
"What I don't understand is why Paul Crete gave up his federal seat to run in a provincial election he may not win. "
Maybe he figures that the PQ is likely to win the next provincial election and he wants to be part of a government rather than being a useless tool as an obstructionist BQ MP in Ottawa.
Hmm. Interesting. But unless he wins the riding he will have given it up for nothing. I think Yvan Loubier left the BQ a couple years ago and ran for the PQ and lost. Just wondering if the same thing will happen here.
Btw, are you saying you think the BQ are useless, obstructionist tools?
I agree debator, any by-election call would not put off a full election, take for example 2 years ago, when Harper brought down his own government for non-confidence, and the by-elections were stopped. :D
Moreover, Harper himself could do such a thing again, and waste the other party's money, just as he did back then. After all the CPC are not going to expend any money on any of these by-elections anyway, it will be the other parties, in particular the Liberals. ;)
It is actually just one year ago coming up when Harper brought himself down (or fired himself as Jack Layton put it). It may seem like 2 years ago though (since a lot has happened since then).
Yes, it is suspected that one of the reasons Harper did that was because he wasn't going to win any of the by-elections - not the ones in QC (Westmount, Saint Lambert) or the ones in Ontario (Guelph, Don Valley West). He called the election just one day before the by-elections were to take place.
A lot of people in the NDP and the Liberals were angry after all the money and work that had been spent on them. I think the NDP in particular was angry about the Westmount by-election being cancelled because their result there probably would have been better there than what it ended up being in the general election. There's an article on this in which NDP candidate Anne Lagace Dowson comments on it.
Guess it was only a year ago, LOL...
I do not remember any angry NDP commentary about Westmount, nor even anger that by-elections were cancelled, just funny commentary about Harper's actions and statements concerning his breaking his own election laws, so please do feel free to post your alleged article.
Well, if you go back further, this area was also a Créditiste stronghold. The region is nationalist and conservative, the Quebec equivalent of rural Eastern and Central Ontario. There's no way the NDP can get traction here.
If people are willing to vote BQ then there is always the potential that they might vote NDP. I'm not saying its likely. The best the NDP can hope for in this byelecton is to improve its vote share.
You could say the same about Dawn Black quitting to run provincially - but her gamble worked out. I don't know if I'd go as far as to call the BQ "useless, obstructionist tools", but one thing for sure is that as a BQ MP you are NEVER EVER going to be a cabinet minister period. As a PQ membe for Riviere du Loup - there is a good chance that you will. Also, if Crete lives in Riviere du Loup then Quebec City is only about a two hour drive - maybe he's sick of the shlep to Ottawa every week.
And remember that unlike Crete, Loubier didn't run in his own political home turf, but parachuted himself elsewhere into a no-hope situation vs an ADQ incumbent.
Though what I find interesting is how there's less buzz about any left-field NDP potential here now than there might have been a year ago, when the Mulcair honeymoon buzz was still running and even Saint Lambert carried wild card potential...
Well I think there are two explanations for that:
1. Saint Lambert is a Montreal area riding and it was a reasonable hypothesis that the NDP MIGHT be able to find a local notable and that there would be some resources drawn from all over Montreal that could be put in. MLKRDL is a rural riding that is far away from any concentration of NDP members etc...there would have to be a real star candidate running for the NDP to put it on the map.
2. After Mulcair won, we could legitimately speculate on other upsets in the wake of the ice being broken in Outremont, but we just had a federal election where the NDP spent a lot of time and money in Quebec and while the popular vote did go up significantly, it was not a massive sudden breakthrough - so i think we all realize that gaining ground in Quebec is going to be a slow step-by-step process and that there is unlikely to be a sudden massive surge like what happened to the Tories in 1984 when they went from 1 seat to 58 seats in Quebec in one election.
Why do you use terms like "alleged article"? It implies that you think I'm making it up. Anyone who followed the controversy surrounding the cancellation of the by-elections would have heard of what I'm talking about. I'm assuming you don't read The Westmount Examiner.
The NDP and Anne Lagace Dowson in particular, were very upset that the by-elections were cancelled. They feel that the results for the NDP would have been better in Westmount during the by-election than they ended up being during the general election.
Nope, it implies that until you post a link to said article, that it is merely an opinion of yours.
And as it turns out, now that you have posted the articles in question, the NDP anger you spoke of was a personal opinion of yours. As the articles indicates no such anger, just a critial look at Harper's actions on the part of the NDP. Others said they were angry but NOT Dawson, nor the NDP.
I think people were quite rightly angered about what a colossal waste of time and money it was to have four byelection campaigns in full swing, all the advance poll votes cast, all the polling stations setup and then to have it all cancelled on one day's notice because Harper decided to fire himself and call an election. I'm actually surprised that people didn't make more of an issue of what a total waste that was. If harper was going to call a general election, he never should have called those byelection sin the first place or else set the date for them months further into the future so that therew would be little or no chance of there being that grotesque waste.
It was 938,000.00 spent for each by-election riding that was wasted, and on top of that the party's money.
The press gave Harper a free pass basically, as per usual, so I am not sure people, across Canada, realized how much it cost us, and then the additional 33 million for the election.
Harper should have kept himself fired.
But I am sure he will do much the same again with the current by-elections. Only perhaps this time he will force non-confidence just before them.
The goal IMV is to waste the other party's money, so they cannot mount a larger campaign against him in a GE. And as long as the msm, is backing him, he can get away with it.
The provincial battle is about who inherits the mantle of the ADQ in that region: the PLQ or the PQ. I don't know the sequence of events that led to who getting nominated when, but both Crete and Loubier are top tier candidates (they have a lot of name recognition...as well as apparent weaknesses). The NDP in the federal riding of Montmagny- L'Islet- Kamouraska- Riviere du Loup is non-existent. It has no riding association, God knows how many members, and no money in the bank. The NDP is largely out of touch with the local issues. Any NDP effort in the riding requires building from a base of zero. If the NDP is able to line up something like a union candidate with a little local cred, money for signs, and a big cheap ad buy (some of the media markets out there are small), then the party will have done about as well as it could hope. The best conceivable result of that byelection would be if the NDP manages to do some good regional membership work (e.g. going out and recruiting new member sign-ups). Seeing as it is not too far a drive from Ottawa, they could send Yvon Godin, Alex Atamenko, Thomas Mulcair, Denise Savoie, Jack Layton, Claude Gravelle, and Carole Hughes in to the riding. It would be a good excercise in elevating those MPs media profile in Quebec as well, which is exactly what the NDP needs if they are going to be known as more than Jack, Mulcair, and the Montreal party.
In other news, it looks as though Paul Crête has made a poor career choice.
It would be interesting if he tried to jump back and get the BQ nomination.
there is a precedent
La Salle was the only Quebec Tory MP returned in the 1980 election. In early 1981, he resigned his seat in order to move to provincial politics and take the leadership of the Union Nationale (UN) political party prior to the 1981 Quebec provincial election. La Salle chose not run in his home town of Joliette because the riding was then represented by an old friend of his, Guy Chevrette, a member of the PQ and Party Whip. He ran in the neighbouring riding of Berthier but failed to win a seat. The Union Nationale failed to win any seats in the election as the PQ went on to win a large majority. He returned to the federal House of Commons in a by-election that was called later that year to fill the vacancy his resignation had created
Interesting that this byelection was apparently in the bag for the PQ until they started talking about sovereignty again and then all the momentum shifted to the Liberals. Why doesn't the PQ wake and smell the coffee and give up on sovereignty and just be a left of centre opposition to a right of centre government.
When is the prvincial by-election? [or likely will be, if it has not been called]
Funny I would ask that question when I did.
If you haven't heard yet, the Liberals beat Crete by 10%.
Since the former Bloc Quebecois M.P. failed to win the seat, could Mario Dumont be thinking that he might stand a better chance in the federal riding?
I don't think one event has any connection to the other. One thing is clear - the ADQ came in a very distant third in what was Dumont's seat - that is not a particularly good sign for him.
Yeah, why doesn't the main party representing Quebec nationalism just drop any efforts to secure self-determination? After all, a right wing social democratic anglo-chauvinst said so...
I think the exact opposite conclusion is more likely: Mario Dumont is personally popular. He won Rivière-du-Loup despite the ADQ tag, not because of it.
Dumont did campaign heavily for his would-be successor who was his executive assistant and it did no good at all. Its just another example of what a one shot deal he is as a politician.
"Yeah, why doesn't the main party representing Quebec nationalism just drop any efforts to secure self-determination? After all, a right wing social democratic anglo-chauvinst said so..."
Actually the people of Quebec and in particular the people of Riviere du Loup said so. Now if the PQ wants to be in opposition in perpetuity serving as nothing but a quaint nostalgia trip for people who were in the audience when DeGaulle said Vive le Quebec Libre in 1967 - that's fine. I'm sure the Quebec Liberal don't mind being in power for as long as the Alberta Tories!
Polls all show that support for sovereignty in Quebec is just about the lowest its been in decades and that is with an incredibly unpopular federal government led by a man who is so alien to Quebec that he might as well be from Mars. If Quebecers are rejecting sovereignty now - when is it ever going to get better?
Lowest in decades? Still hanging at about 40% last I checked, which is much higher than what it was at the start of the 95 Referendum (the No side was polling at 67%).
But let's look at the alternative, staying in Canada. Since the last elections, the Federal government cut over a billion dollar from the Equalization program for Quebec, while spending billions in Ontario, and is imposing a centralized securities commission, against the unanimous will of the Quebec government. And this is Harper's "Open" Federalism. Ignatieff has already said he would give nothing more for Quebec.
The Federalists are always selling us the dream of a reformed federation, of a new constitution with respect for Quebec's distinct society, with more autonomy for Quebec. The Liberals have been in power for 6 years, and all we've seen are pious words and a continual erosion of Quebec's power in favour of the Federal government.
You're telling me we (the Sovereignists) are living in the past. I'm telling you the Federalists are living in denial. The dreams of a reformed Canada are buried in Meech and Charlottetown.
Show me when the No side was ever at 67% in the last 30 years - that is false.
According to the latest CROP poll, 62% of Quebecers would vote NO right now and that's even with an extremely unpopular rightwing federal government. Even a majority of francophone Quebecers oppose sovereignty now. The moment Pauline Marois talks about sovereignty - PQ support drops like a stone. The sovereigntists are by all accounts totaly demoralized and have no arguments to present to the people of Quebec. Its a dead issue. Even if the federal government reduced equalization to Quebec the point is that Quebec gets equalization. If it were no longer part of Canada it would get none.
That may well be true. But the question is whether enough quebeckers care enough anymore to make it a driving issue for them.
Quote: "Early polls indicated that 67% of Quebecers would vote "No""
As for Equalization, of course we would no longer receive Equalization payments, but at the moment we do receive it. During a recession, the federal government decided to cut the Quebc's budget by a billion dollars, while spending billions in Ontario. It's a point proving Quebec has nothing to gain staying in Canada.
We would no longer receive it after independece, of course, but it's only a small part of the Federal Budget. The savings we would make elsewhere would more than cover it, according to the "Year One Budget" of Francois Legault and the Bélanger-Campreau comission. In fact, the most recent exercise, by Legault in 2005, claims that a Sovereign Quebec would have a positive budget of 13.4 billion dollars in 5 years, compared to a 3 billion dollars deficit by staying in Canada. Source: http://www.francois-legault.com/PDF/Finances_Quebec_Souverain_Mai2005.pdf
Finally, Marois has the worst sense of timing: you don't talk about sovereignty or crisis (thanks Parizeau) in an economic crisis. That's what most analysts pointed at for the PQ's defeat in RDL.