ThreeHundredEight refers to a Nanos poll from early February that suggests the NDP could be left with four seats after the election.
http://threehundredeight.blogspot.com/search?q=ontario+poll
What do the electoral prognosticators among us think of that forecast, and if it were to be accurate, which four MPPs would be left standing?
Is Pighin actually the candidate or is he a candidate for the nomination? I ask because just two days ago i got an e-mail from Jonah Shein that he was running for the NDP NOMINATION in Davenport. I was under the impression that no nomination meeting had taken place yet.
I hope Pighin isn't the nominated candidate (yet) - I just got the message from Schein as well saying that he's running for the nomination and the date will be announced soon.
Here's Jonah's website:
Eric Grenier is a hack whose seat projection methodology would have more credibility if involved butchering chickens and checking the entrails.
What do the electoral prognosticators among us think of that forecast, and if it were to be accurate, which four MPPs would be left standing?
Kormos, for one.
Top Tier Targets:
Thunder Bay-Atitokan
York South-Weston
Timiskaming-Cochrane
Hamilton Mountain
Ottawa Centre
Davenport
Algoma-Manitoulin
Thunder Bay-Superior North
Other Possibilities (all held federally):
London-Fanshawe
Sault Ste. Marie
Sudbury
Windsor-Tecumseh
Windsor West
Unlikely, But Not Out of the Realm of Possibility:
Oshawa
Future Potential:
Essex (28% in 2003)
York West (vote increased from 16% in 2003 to 28% in 2007, next to York South-Weston)
Is Pighin actually the candidate or is he a candidate for the nomination? I ask because just two days ago i got an e-mail from Jonah Shein that he was running for the NDP NOMINATION in Davenport. I was under the impression that no nomination meeting had taken place yet.
The link I gave was decidedly ambiguous on that point. Sorry, everyone.
Top Tier Targets:
Thunder Bay-Atitokan
York South-Weston
Timiskaming-Cochrane
Hamilton Mountain
Ottawa Centre
Davenport
Algoma-Manitoulin
Thunder Bay-Superior NorthOther Possibilities (all held federally):
London-Fanshawe
Sault Ste. Marie
Sudbury
Windsor-Tecumseh
Windsor WestUnlikely, But Not Out of the Realm of Possibility:
Oshawa
Future Potential:
Essex (28% in 2003)
York West (vote increased from 16% in 2003 to 28% in 2007, next to York South-Weston)
I'm willing to be even more ambitious on "future potential" grounds, including a lot of those Brant/Cambridge type seats w/a strong history albeit only low-teens 2007 results. Plus, I'd ogle at a couple of surprise 2007 20-percent-plussers: Sarnia (where the NDP may have benefitted from the Di Cocco backlash), and Scarborough-Guildwood (where Neethan Shan overachieved in a way that hints at untold potential in Scarborough-type seats in general)
Top Tier Targets:
York South-Weston
Paul Ferreira's campaign office is open for business at 1193 Weston Road, by the way. Official opening next week, March 12, 1:00 p.m.
Any word on who we've got for Thunder Bay–Atikokan? That's an even more red-hot target than YS—W …
I'm willing to be even more ambitious on "future potential" grounds, including a lot of those Brant/Cambridge type seats w/a strong history albeit only low-teens 2007 results. Plus, I'd ogle at a couple of surprise 2007 20-percent-plussers: Sarnia (where the NDP may have benefitted from the Di Cocco backlash), and Scarborough-Guildwood (where Neethan Shan overachieved in a way that hints at untold potential in Scarborough-type seats in general)
Yes, Sarnia should be definitely added to the list. In fact I can see them eclipsing the Liberals there this time.
Anil Naidoo won a three-way contest for the provincial NDP nomination in Ottawa Centre held this past Thursday
I don't know much about the strengths and weaknesses of Naidoo as a candidate compared to the Murray who ran for the ONDP in 2007. I suppose at the very least he would add some ethnic diversity to the ONDP caucus and of course the Liberal incumbent in Ottawa Centre is also south Asian so its all a reflection of the growing diversity of Ontario!
Naidoo is going to have some stiff competition in the shape of Yasir Naqvi. Elected in 2007 and now president of the Ontario Liberals, I think he's angling for the top job one day.
[url=http://yfrog.com/h2nn5hhyj]John Vanthof[/url] has been nominated in Timiskaming-Cochrane. Having come so close in 2007, he has to be seen as the favourite to replace the retiring turncoat David Ramsay.
[url=http://yfrog.com/h2nn5hhyj]John Vanthof[/url] has been nominated in Timiskaming-Cochrane. Having come so close in 2007, he has to be seen as the favourite to replace the retiring turncoat David Ramsay.
A favourite? Possibly, but this will likely be a strong three-way race. This is a difficult riding to win. His near-success last election has a lot to do with the building of the NDP brand out that way by Gilles Bisson and Charlie Angus, but also a lot to do with the collapse of the PC vote due to the religious school-funding issue.
Vanthof is an extremely strong candidate, particularly due to his agricultural background, but there is a significant conservative vote out in rural Timiskaming (20 percent in 2003 and 30 percent in 1999) and it's a huuuuuge riding that runs from Cochrane in the north all the way to Sturgeon Falls on Lake Nipissing and the French River. Lots of diversity in the communities, mining, agriculture, forestry, anglophone, francophone, everything Ontario has to offer (other than a streetcar track and a financial district maybe.) The number of individual communities in this riding is baffling - Cochrane, Iroquois Falls, Kirkland Lake, the claybelt towns, the Tri-Towns, Cobalt, Temagami, Sturgeon, Markstay-Warren...it's crazy.
I think he'll be successful because he's a very strong candidate but this will be a hard one to win, no shoo-in for sure.
but there is a significant conservative vote out in rural Timiskaming (20 percent in 2003 and 30 percent in 1999)
Though with no small due to Charlie Angus, it's the kind of populist-grassroots conservative vote that's proven quite amenable to the NDP. Indeed, the 2007 pattern tended to be: Vanthof north of Tri-Town (i.e. Charlie Angus country), and Ramsay from Tri-Town southward...
Indeed, the 2007 pattern tended to be: Vanthof north of Tri-Town (i.e. Charlie Angus country), and Ramsay from Tri-Town southward...
I hope there is a spill-over from Claude Gravelle. The south part of Timiskaming -- Cochrane includes West Nipissing (Sturgeon Falls), Markstay-Warren, French River, and St. Charles, in Nickel Belt federal riding. That's 21,116 people.
Time to revive this thread. I assume the phone lines have been burning up from the provincial NDP and a whole bunch of federal candidates. So who are the ones to target to build a strong 'the NDP can be government' look. If the federal election and the aftermath has taught anyone anything it should be - get ready anything can happen. So let's start with frontbench strength outside the incumbents.
There are now 13 ridings in Ontario that have NDP federal MPs but that the Ontario NDP does not hold. Obviously those 13 seats have to be regatded as the lowest hanging fruit and I'll be curious to hear about who the ONDP recruits for those.
[url=http://jagmeetsingh.ca/bio/]Jagmeet Singh[/url] came within a few hundred votes of winning Bramalea-Gore-Malton on May 2. I hope he considers a provincial run.
Neethan Shan should run again in Scarborough-Guildwood, as should Antoni Shelton in York West.
Shan could actually flip a coin for either Guildwood or Rouge River (where he ran for councillor last year, and which just went federally NDP). Though Bas Balkissoon would be a hard Liberal nut to crack...
There are now 13 ridings in Ontario that have NDP federal MPs but that the Ontario NDP does not hold. Obviously those 13 seats have to be regatded as the lowest hanging fruit and I'll be curious to hear about who the ONDP recruits for those.
Paul Ferreira is already nominated in York South--Weston, a riding now proudly held federally by Mike Sullivan.
There are now 13 ridings in Ontario that have NDP federal MPs but that the Ontario NDP does not hold. Obviously those 13 seats have to be regatded as the lowest hanging fruit and I'll be curious to hear about who the ONDP recruits for those.
Especially those where the Toronto Star endorsement was not critical.
Here they are, plus some in winning range:
Riding: NDP percent
Windsor-West: 54
Davenport: 54
Ottawa Centre: 52
Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing: 52
London-Fanshawe: 51
Windsor-Tecumseh: 50
Sudbury: 50
Thunder Bay-Superior North: 50
Thunder Bay-Rainy River: 49
Hamilton Mountain: 47
York South-Weston: 40
Scarborough-Rouge River: 40
Oshawa: 38
Sault Ste. Marie: 37
Scarborough Southwest: 35
Essex: 35
Bramalea-Gore-Malton: 34
Sarnia-Lambton: 30
Toronto Centre: 30
Scarborough Centre: 30
Ottawa Vanier: 29
Brant: 29
I wonder if Tony Ruprecht plans on running again. He only won by 1500 votes last time, and Andrew Cash won an absolutely stunning victory there.
Does anyone have any idea when the NDP nomination in Davenport will be?
Tony Ruprecht = Dead Man Walking...though he's ability to imitate a corpse for the past 20 years was already nothing short of extraordinary!
Wasn't Jonah Schein positioned for the Davenport NDP nomination?
As for Ruprecht: he *is* getting old. Indeed, his visage on his most recent election signs looked sick-old-mannish. Between that and Cubagate and whatever else, it's like in 2007, for the first time, Ruprecht became a liability to his own crack electoral machine.
Of course, in case Ruprecht decides to retire, there's always one Mario Silva who might bid to take his place...
Last time I heard Jonah Schein was running for the nomination, but there's another candidate as well - Paul Pighin who ran for the ONDP in London last time.
Of course, in case Ruprecht decides to retire, there's always one Mario Silva who might bid to take his place...
I wonder if the NDP could take the Schein off of Silva?
I'd be curious to have some of our Ontario Babblers prognosticate more generally on the coming election. From my distant Wet Coast perspective, the Ontario situation seems not unlike the situation in Manitoba: a tired, somewhat complacent incumbent government that is not particularly loved by the electorate, but whose main opposition seems not quite ready for prime time. The big difference, it seems to me, is that while the third party in Manitoba is still completely moribund, the Ontario NDP is starting to show some signs of life under a more dynamic new leader. Will McGunity get a third term by default or will Hudak get in? Could the NDP do well enough to hold the balance of power in a minority situation?
Not well enough to have a balance of power, but perhaps well enough to ensure a Hudak majority...
*Yawn*
If the Liberals crash it will be all of their own making. I am so sick to death of the boogey man Liberal scare tactic. Do and stand for something and actually be the progressive you claim to be- rather than business Liberals who have tried to greenwash the privatization of our energy production, kept all of Mike Harris' education funding formula, created the LHINs so that we now have no local accountablity in health care and have been a corrupt government using taxpayer money to fill the pockets of friends of this government.
I believe as more and more people see Andrea Horwath, the better NDP numbers will get and a third place Liberal finish would not shock me. I also expect to see some upward movement of the Greens in Ontario- whether that will be a seat or not remains to be seen, but they will do better than others expect.
a third place Liberal finish would not shock me.
I'd be shocked if the Liberals do better than third.
I also expect to see some upward movement of the Greens in Ontario- whether that will be a seat or not remains to be seen, but they will do better than others expect.
Considering how well they did in 2007, how poorly they did federally just now, and the low profile of the present provincial leader--plus, the likelihood of a "stronger" NDP taking a lot of those 2007 Green-parked votes--I wouldn't be so sure.
There will be rural Liberals in places like eastern Ontario who won't be able to bring themselves to vote for McGuinty again, won't vote for Hudak, would likely never vote NDP so will default to Green. I did say upward movement - I didn't claim they were going to set the world on fire. Shane Jolley is seeking the nomination in the open seat of Bruce Grey Owen Sound, so it wouldn't be totally impossible they might win that seat, but as I said it remains to be seen how that goes.
I am being the progessive I claim to be. The federal election worked so well, especially with a strong NDP. We wound up with the most right-wing government in Canada's history! Now, it looks like we are in for a repeat of the Mike Harris government in Ontario, which was universally loved by progressive (Conservatives) everywhere. The idea of Harper in power in Ottawa and Hudak in Ontario (and Ford in Toronto) has progressive (Conservatives) across Canada licking their chops.
You would think that Progressives (with a capital P) would do ANYTHING to stop Hudak. Including vote for McGuuinty, WHO RAISED THE MINIMUM WAGE FOR NON-UNIONIZED WORKERS from 6.85 to 10.25 an hour, doing more to benefit the poor working class than Harris or Rae ever did before.
Ah so the Harper government is the NDPs fault? Couldn't possibly be the Liberals. I mean what could they have to do with their own decline. It HAS to be someone elses fault the Liberals would never do anything wrong.
And why did the Liberals raise the minimum wage- that of course was because of the by-election win of Cheri DiNovo scaring the Liberals into doing something for once. And of course those same workers have had far more taken out of them through the regressive HST. When watching McGuinty you need to look at the actual outcomes, not the rhetoric. Any progressive that supports McGuinty is either not paying attention or just plain stupid - sorry to be so blunt.
McGunity is nothing more than a warmed over PC governents of the past with a smiley face sticker pasted on it.
I am being the progessive I claim to be. The federal election worked so well, especially with a strong NDP. We wound up with the most right-wing government in Canada's history!
Right now I think that by any objective standard the most "rightwing government in canadian history" was the first Chretien government from 1993 to 1997 when he and his acolyte Paul martin singlehandedly destroyed the social safety net. Nothing harper has done to date come even close to replicating the damage that Paul Martin did. It is possible that now with a majority Harper might find a way to be more rightwing than the Chretien/Martin regime - that remains to be seen.
The lesson for progressives from the federal election is that the Liberal vote didn't crash and burn ENOUGH. They still retained 25% of the vote in Ontario. If they could have fallen to say 15% and the NDP had had 36% instead of 26% - the tories would have won far fewer seats in ontario and would not have a majority now.
I am NOT blaming the NDP for the Conservatives' victory! People have a right to vote NDP as well as any other party, and thank goodness that they do! I am just observing that with the way that the electoral mathematics works, if you split one side, the other side wins. The Right wins with 39% because there is unity there. McGuinty does have SOME progressive credentials, notwithstanding the above complaints which may be perfectly valid. Raising the minimum wage is behaviour which should be encouraged. When you raise it everyone tends to benefit as the wages above the minimum tend to go up as well. So are the ODSP changes which allow people to keep half the money they make if they work. And yeah, taxes went up for everyone else. Some wealth has been redistributed. Of course more would be nice. But isn't that what progressive is supposed to be? If ANY Party does stuff like this, it should not matter what they call themselves, where they come from, or what their ideology is. Do you think Hudak is going to raise the minimum wage?
The lesson for progressives from the federal election is that the Liberal vote didn't crash and burn ENOUGH. They still retained 25% of the vote in Ontario. If they could have fallen to say 15% and the NDP had had 36% instead of 26% - the tories would have won far fewer seats in ontario and would not have a majority now.
In Ontario, the Liberal vote bled equally left and right. The Liberals are not a left-wing party. If the Liberals lost another 10% of their vote, there might have been more leakage to the Conservatives too - but I agree more would have gone NDP.
McGuinty does have SOME progressive credentials, notwithstanding the above complaints which may be perfectly valid. Raising the minimum wage is behaviour which should be encouraged. When you raise it everyone tends to benefit as the wages above the minimum tend to go up as well. So are the ODSP changes which allow people to keep half the money they make if they work. And yeah, taxes went up for everyone else. Some wealth has been redistributed. Of course more would be nice. But isn't that what progressive is supposed to be? If ANY Party does stuff like this, it should not matter what they call themselves, where they come from, or what their ideology is. Do you think Hudak is going to raise the minimum wage?
McGuinty does NOT have any progressive credentials. He has done nothing to reverse Mike Harris' legacy. He has cut ODSP/OW rates if you factor inflation and he has cut the Special Diet program. He have billions to GM while stealing money from the poorest in Ontario. He has redistributed wealth to the rich on the backs of the poor.
I am NOT blaming the NDP for the Conservatives' victory! People have a right to vote NDP as well as any other party, and thank goodness that they do! I am just observing that with the way that the electoral mathematics works, if you split one side, the other side wins. The Right wins with 39% because there is unity there.
But you are making wassumptions about who is on what side that many of us disagree with. In BC the Liberals and Conservatives have iunited to form Social Credit (aka as the BC Liberals) to avoid splitting the "right" vote to keep the NDP out of power - same thing happened in Saskatchewan when the Sask. party was created. I'm glad that the Liberals and Conservatives keep splitting the rightwing vote and helping the NDP win more seats.
In Ontario, the Liberal vote bled equally left and right. The Liberals are not a left-wing party. If the Liberals lost another 10% of their vote, there might have been more leakage to the Conservatives too - but I agree more would have gone NDP.
And honestly, don't think that some Conservative vote wasn't flirting with bleeding to the NDP, once they caught wind of "hey--Jack's not bad"--before erring on the side of caution. (Which may explain some of those Ekos-type polls showing the Tories much lower in Ontario than they actually were on E-day.)
He did raise the minimum wage, so you can't say he did nothing.
And Stephen Harper was forced to offer more assistance to the unemployed. So what exactly is your point. Stephen Harper and Dalton McGuinty are pretty similar in that they each did one good thing?
And Stephen Harper was forced to offer more assistance to the unemployed. So what exactly is your point. Stephen Harper and Dalton McGuinty are pretty similar in that they each did one good thing?
George Bush also raised the profile of AIDS in Africa in his 2003 State of the Union address.
Raising minimum wage from 6.85 an hour to 10.25 an hour is a f*ck of a lot more than any other of the single things you mentioned that right wing politicians did for workers and the unemployed. It affected the lives of the vast majority of Ontarians who work for sh*t pay.
In US dollar terms the spending power increase has been huge. $6.85 with a .70 dollar versus $10.25 with a dollar at par. It is just about double. I cannot stress how important this is.
A large number of us think the differences between the Conservatives, Liberals, and NDP are just incremental angles on some policy dials. All three parties have a policy of balanced budgets which are paid for by spending cuts. They all talk about the market economy and job creators, and federally they all voted for the war on Libya.
Being concerned whether a Party is ideologically pure might be appropriate discussion between Socialist Consciousness and the International Workers Party in a bar somewhere cool, or maybe on a university campus, but between the Tories, Liberals and NDP? Come on! LOL! Surely the best route is to advocate loudly and let the political people pick it up, from whatever quarter...
The extreme rightwing BC Liberal party (aka Social Credit) also just raised the minimum wage. Do you recommend that working people in BC get on their hands and knees in gratitude to Christy Clark and vote for her???
Well, are you going to give me more?
