Another Polling Threhad

Sun, 2012-03-11 19:20

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

That's Polling Thread....I was always a lousy speller!

Sun, 2012-03-11 19:24

jjuares

The MSM acting as cheerleader for the LPC and Bobby and the NDP leaderless and the LPC still can't overcome the NDP. All the stars are aligning for the Libbies and they still can't get traction.

Sun, 2012-03-11 19:29

#4

Boom Boom

With a leader in place and front bench strength restored in the House of Commons, look for a rise in the NDP's polling fortunes soon.

Sun, 2012-03-11 21:42

#5

autoworker autoworker's picture

jjuares wrote:

The MSM acting as cheerleader for the LPC and Bobby and the NDP leaderless and the LPC still can't overcome the NDP. All the stars are aligning for the Libbies and they still can't get traction.

I would like to see the breakdown of those numbers by region, especially Ontario--where elections are now won and lost.

Sun, 2012-03-11 21:58

#6

Ken Burch

Arthur Cramer wrote:

That's Polling Thread....I was always a lousy speller!

I was thinking a "Threhad" would be a holy war thread.

Sun, 2012-03-11 22:11

#7

Fidel

Arthur Cramer wrote:

That's Polling Thread....I was always a lousy speller!

It's funny because I thought it was a menage et trois for highly opinionated pious types. Now I'm embarrassed, and it's all your fault.

Sun, 2012-03-11 23:29

#8

jerrym

Here's another Ipsos poll headline. Like Arthur, I do not have access to the site.

Canadians Split on Whether Accusations of Robo-Call Conservative Conspiracy are True (50%) or Not (47%)

Four Percent (4%) of Canadians Strongly Believe they Received a Call During Election Campaign that Deliberately Tried to Confuse Them About Where to Vote

Saturday, March 10, 2012

Sun, 2012-03-11 23:55

#9

Buddy Kat

I see too many contradicions in polls recently to believe in polls that are showing no changes in the conservative camps...One might want to think about the fact ...the same way conservatives can manipulate the voting system perhaps they can manipulate the polling system....

Then there are the firms themselves that are akin to the biased media that are trying to tie fraud to everyone else except conservatives....or minimize the damage of election fraud and the conservative party connection. As long as that kind of crap is going on , and the stakes at an all time high , and their darling party of corrupyion just skimming by the skin of their teeth to form a majority fraudulently... polls should not be believed right now...we are seeing signs of major desperation with the conservatives and their buddy media as it is....Lies and all

Saying that ...I want to see an ekos poll...I trust them.

New http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zky2bn0Gtyg New

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J-QvXax88J8

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q0eQgUpkJ1Q

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ns8LD5Q8ecc

Mon, 2012-03-12 00:07

#10

jerrym

I was able to copy this small section from the cover page of this poll:

While Prime Minister Harper and the Conservatives maintain they had no knowledge of the calls, fully one half (50%) ‘agree’ (16% strongly/34% somewhat) that ‘these accusations are true and the Conservative Party had a coordinated campaign to deceive Canadian voters with misleading telephone calls in the last election’. Conversely, the other half (47%) of Canadians ‘disagree’ (20% strongly/26% somewhat), and 4% don’t know...

The 4% (even if a portion of these are mistaken, this represents over a million people) who feel convinced that they received a call that "During Election Campaign that Deliberately Tried to Confuse Them About Where to Vote" shows that this was no single rogue caller but a systematic attempt at voter suppression.

Mon, 2012-03-12 00:27

#11

Brachina

Arthur Cramer wrote:

That's Polling Thread....I was always a lousy speller!

Don't worry this is the internet, no place for proper spelling and grammar hehehe. Or at least that's what I tell myself.

Mon, 2012-03-12 00:35

#12

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

By the way, that Nanos poll is looking more and more like an outlier. That guy is such a smart a** self promoter. I wish somebody would **** that smug smile *** *** face.

Mon, 2012-03-12 01:12

#13

flight from kamakura

on the more gloomy side, though not inconsistent with the polling above at the national aggregate level, the latest léger marketing poll in quebec has the bq at 31%, ndp at 27%, lpc at 22% and the conservateurs at 14%. http://www.24hmontreal.canoe.ca/24hmontreal/actualites/archives/2012/03/...

Mon, 2012-03-12 01:18

#14

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

FFK:

Don't worry. First of all, I don't believe it. Secondly, its temporary. Hang in there or as the great Allan Grayson always says, Courage!

Mon, 2012-03-12 01:18

#15

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Barchina: thanks!

I thought about the religous references as well as detailed above by the way, but I was afraid to say anything. I didn't want to offend. Still wished I had written the title to this thread properly. Hey Mods, can you fix this?

Mon, 2012-03-12 12:21

#16

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

New Forum Poll, has NDP in first in Quebec and the Libs back in second. I don't believe NDP support is that low in Quebec. And as I said above to FFK, and everyone else, I still say there has been a major and permanent shift in Federal Party support in Quebec. These polls are over the place. I buy the Tories have pretty solid support, but overall, I don't believe NDP support is as low as usually depicted Federally, and I certainly don't believe the Libs have more support then the NDP on the Pairies.

I think the Libs are pretty much solidly in Third at this moment, and as I have said before so many times, what happens long term has entirely to do with the NDP, and nothing with anyone else, or any party, In this respect, the Libs are completely and totally, without question or doubt, irrefutably irrelevant. This has to do long term solely with how the NDP does. The Libs are absolutely in no postion to affect this outcome. This is entirely the NDP's to lose, only. Period.

Mon, 2012-03-12 14:05

#17

Steve_Shutt Steve_Shutt's picture

Polls over the next few months will probably me most instructinve (post-our convention bump and pre-the Liberal convention bump).

That said the Conservative totals seem steady, if slightly lower than last May (which is actually consistent with the pre-election numbers).

If our May numbers are able to hold in Quebec (be it with Mulcair or otherwise) then we will either lead or be the clear alternative to the Tories everywhere save Ontario.

Ontario is the last hold-out of Liberal governing legitimacy and it seems very weak to me.

Not suggesting that they are analogous situations, because they are not, but pre-Reform/Alliance and PC merger the divide was more geographically balanced. The Reform/Alliance dominated the PCs west of Ontario, the PCs dominant east of Ontario and essentially tied in Ontario. That regional clarity is not present in the NDP-Liberal fights across the country. At best the Liberals are slightly ahead (in Ontario and a few Atlantic polls) or behind the NDP (almost everywhere else). If Ontario cracks, the floodgates could open in terms of polling numbers for the NDP.

My sense has always been that Ontario is comfortable parking with the Liberals, absent a clear option to replace Harper, but that should we credibly be able to "look" like winners we might be able to enter 2015 with it being ours to lose - nice change, I would think.

Mon, 2012-03-12 17:44

#18

Debater

The Léger poll is being talked about now on Don Martin's show on CTV.

Jean Lapierre seems to think the NDP is in big trouble in Québec since they are behind the BQ and only 5 points ahead of the Liberals. Lapierre may be overstating the case somewhat, but since Québec politics is so turbulent it's hard to know what is going on. It would be nice to see the Liberals recover in Québec in the next election, and hopefully the Conservatives will remain 4th in the Québec polls.

Mon, 2012-03-12 17:55

#19

Winston

@Arthur: If Leger is reporting these numbers, they're ptobably pretty close to true - Leger has a very good track record in Québec. Where the Forum numbers are interesting is in how they differ based on which leader we select.

Québécers are simply waiting to see what we do on March 24th - this may be just a blip on the road back to Québec dominance, or the harbinger of impending doom.

Also: with the PQ rebounding considerably at the provincial level, there is bound to be some bounce for the Bloc.

Mon, 2012-03-12 17:56

#20

Winston

@Arthur: If Leger is reporting these numbers, they're ptobably pretty close to true - Leger has a very good track record in Québec. Where the Forum numbers are interesting is in how they differ based on which leader we select.

Québécers are simply waiting to see what we do on March 24th - this may be just a blip on the road back to Québec dominance, or the harbinger of impending doom.

Also: with the PQ rebounding considerably at the provincial level, there is bound to be some bounce for the Bloc.

And, as an aside, can you imagine what we'd have said exactly 12 months ago to be at 27% in Québec?

Mon, 2012-03-12 18:09

#21

Debater

Winston wrote:

And, as an aside, can you imagine what we'd have said exactly 12 months ago to be at 27% in Québec?

Robin Sears just said the same thing on CTV!

(Actually I think the NDP did once have those numbers in Québec temporarily in the early 1990's).

*

Anyway, I think the Liberals need their own game-changer. Yes, Bob Rae has more credibility and experience than Michael Ignatieff and has raised the Liberals in the polls from where they were last May, but not by enough. And he has too much baggage as Ontario Premier, not to mention not being young enough to stay on for several elections if necessary.

I think the Libs need a leader from a younger generation with less baggage, but who also has appeal in Ontario and Québec, someone such as Dominic Léblanc, David McGuinty or Martin Cauchon. I hear all 3 men are planning to run, so that's what I'd like to see.

Mon, 2012-03-12 18:17

#22

Stockholm

Debater wrote:

Jean Lapierre seems to think the NDP is in big trouble in Québec since they are behind the BQ and only 5 points ahead of the Liberals.

If there is one person whose opinion I tend to totally discount - its Jean Lapierre. That guy is wrong about EVERYTHING and on top of that he tends to be so definitive and presumptuous about everything. Who cares if one poll (out of many) has the BQ in the lead by a statistically insignificant number. We aren't voting in an election today, we are voting 3.5 years from now. Of course other polls have the NDP still in first place in QC - but for some reason lapierre just ignores those because its not "conventient"!

In Oct. 2015 for all we know, Pauline Marois could be in year three of a disastrous term in office and could be so unpopular that the BQ and PQ are both in single digits!

Mon, 2012-03-12 18:24

#23

Debater

Lapierre isn't ignoring the other polls - they were talking about this specific poll, and about general polling trends, and the one constant in all of them has been a decline in support for the NDP.

I agree with Winston that Dominic Leblanc is a bit dull, but then again, most of our recent leaders have been boring and uninspiring, so that by itself is not fatal. It's whether you can get votes and whether you can appeal to particular demographics.

I wonder what the strategy of the BQ is going to be over the next few years? Afterall, they chose to elect a new leader who doesn't even have a seat in Parliament, and who knows how long it will be until he does. Is one of the BQ MP's going to resign so that Daniel Paille can run? Of course even if a BQ MP resigns, Harper can wait as long as 6 months before calling a by-election.

Mon, 2012-03-12 18:24

#24

Winston

Debater wrote:

Robin Sears just said the same thing on CTV!

I don't get CTV Newsnet (only CBC News, CNN, Aljazeera and BBC World) - I refuse to buy a package that includes Fox News, so no CTV for me.

But I'm flattered nevertheless that Robin Sears is quoting me!

Debater wrote:

I think the Libs need a leader from a younger generation with less baggage, but who also has appeal in Ontario and Québec, someone such as Dominic Léblanc, David McGuinty or Martin Cauchon. I hear all 3 men are planning to run, so that's what I'd like to see.

Please pick Dominic Leblanc (there is no accent aigu on the 'e', BTW - its LE blanc, not LAY blanc) - he's so inspiring that you might even hold on to Beauséjour-Petitcodiac!

(edited to put an accent aigu on "Beauséjour - shame on me!)

Mon, 2012-03-12 18:27

#25

Stockholm

Actually having watched the Powerplay session, while Lapierre's style is a bit abrasive, what he actually said was very self-evident - i.e. that the NDP had a one night stand with Quebecers and that nothing can be taken for granted in terms of maintaining support there. If the NDP picks Mulcair or even Topp it has good potential to establish roots in Quebec, but if the NDP picks anyone else as leader its probably game over in Quebec. I agree.

Mon, 2012-03-12 18:28

#26

Winston

For the love of FSM, STOP IT, Debater! Your going to give me absolute nightmares!

Imagine if you will, a debate between Stephen Harper, Peggy Nash and Dominic Leblanc - even I wouldn't be able to watch that, and I'm a political junkie!

Voter turnout could drop to NIL.

Mon, 2012-03-12 18:28

#27

Lord Palmerston

If Stephane Dion's editorial in the National Post today is any indication of how the Liberals plan to tack the question of Quebec, they can forget any sort of comeback.

Mon, 2012-03-12 18:30

#28

Debater

Winston, don't forget that now that Elizabeth May has a seat, she will be in the next debate too, so perhaps that will spice it up a bit?

Mon, 2012-03-12 18:31

#29

Winston

Debater wrote:

Winston, don't forget that now that Elizabeth May has a seat, she will be in the next debate too, so perhaps that will spice it up a bit?

Thank FSM for small mercies!

Mon, 2012-03-12 18:39

#30

Debater

Lord Palmerston wrote:

If Stephane Dion's editorial in the National Post today is any indication of how the Liberals plan to tack the question of Quebec, they can forget any sort of comeback.

I know the NDP has moved very far away from federalism these days, but you do realize that many Québecers have no problem with a strong federalist vision, right? Taking a stance against separatism is not the terrible thing that some of you in the NDP seem to think it is. Chrétien was a strong federalist and he got more votes in Québec in 2000 than Gilles Duceppe did.

Being a strong federalist does not mean being anti-Québec. That is the point Stéphane Dion is making.

Mon, 2012-03-12 19:17

#31

Ken Burch

Debater wrote:

The Léger poll is being talked about now on Don Martin's show on CTV.

It would be nice to see the Liberals recover in Québec in the next election, and hopefully the Conservatives will remain 4th in the Québec polls.

If the Liberals recovered in Quebec, it would be meaningless that the Conservatives were fourth, since on economic policy and social spending, the real issues, the two parties are barely distinguishable, and the Liberals really aren't all that progressive on anything else(as opposed to their voters, who are generally to the left of the party they support).

One pro-austerity anti-worker party is enough.

Mon, 2012-03-12 19:19

#32

Ken Burch

Debater wrote:

Lord Palmerston wrote:

If Stephane Dion's editorial in the National Post today is any indication of how the Liberals plan to tack the question of Quebec, they can forget any sort of comeback.

I know the NDP has moved very far away from federalism these days, but you do realize that many Québecers have no problem with a strong federalist vision, right? Taking a stance against separatism is not the terrible thing that some of you in the NDP seem to think it is. Chrétien was a strong federalist and he got more votes in Québec in 2000 than Gilles Duceppe did.

Being a strong federalist does not mean being anti-Québec. That is the point Stéphane Dion is making.

The NDP is federalist. They just aren't Trudeau-federalist, but then, neither is much of anybody in Quebec.

Mon, 2012-03-12 19:24

#33

Debater

Ken Burch wrote:

Debater wrote:

The Léger poll is being talked about now on Don Martin's show on CTV.

It would be nice to see the Liberals recover in Québec in the next election, and hopefully the Conservatives will remain 4th in the Québec polls.

If the Liberals recovered in Quebec, it would be meaningless that the Conservatives were fourth, since on economic policy and social spending, the real issues, the two parties are barely distinguishable, and the Liberals really aren't all that progressive on anything else(as opposed to their voters, who are generally to the left of the party they support).

One pro-austerity anti-worker party is enough.

Who says the Liberals aren't progressive? The NDP? Babble? Most Canadians consider the Liberals to be progressive. In fact, some Canadians consider the Liberals too far left. This is not a far left country, which is one of the reasons the NDP will have challenges increasing its support.

Canadians are not as progressive as we like to think they are. Look at how solid the support is for the Conservatives.

Mon, 2012-03-12 20:14

#34

socialdemocrati...

Conservatives have made more gains from depressing voter turnout than actually increasing their number of votes.

Canadians are incredibly progressive. The NDP is responsible for the most popular policy in Canadian history: medicare. Maybe your belief that the NDP is "far left" is the reason why Liberals keep losing. Liberals went from cribbing NDP policies (Saskatchewan bill of rights, medicare) under Trudeau, to cribbing Conservative policies under Martin and Ignatieff (austerity, Afghanistan). Liberals went from taking credit for NDP ideas, to occasionally pretending to support NDP ideas then running the country like Mulroney Conservatives.

It's cool though. We'll be happy to have your support for progressive policies like electoral reform, a federal minimum wage, home care, more generous pensions. You know, things that most Canadians want, but haven't had a realistic shot at getting until they realized the Liberals kept lying to them.

Mon, 2012-03-12 20:27

#35

Jacob Two-Two

Debater wrote:

Who says the Liberals aren't progressive? The NDP? Babble?

Their voting record. The people who believe they're progressive are the ones who only read articles by right-wing pundits and don't know the things the Liberals have voted for and against.

Mon, 2012-03-12 20:31

#36

Boom Boom

Liberals campaign on the left, govern on the right.

Mon, 2012-03-12 20:35

#37

Boom Boom

The Liberal strategy is: fake left, go right.

Mon, 2012-03-12 21:20

#38

adma

Stockholm wrote:

If the NDP picks Mulcair or even Topp it has good potential to establish roots in Quebec, but if the NDP picks anyone else as leader its probably game over in Quebec. I agree.

Or, more properly, if that anyone-else pretty much blackballs Mulcair rather than viewing him as an essential cog in the NDP machine, it'd be game over.

Mon, 2012-03-12 21:21

#39

adma

Debater wrote:
I think the Libs need a leader from a younger generation with less baggage, but who also has appeal in Ontario and Québec, someone such as Dominic Léblanc, David McGuinty or Martin Cauchon. I hear all 3 men are planning to run, so that's what I'd like to see.

Given what happened to Cauchon that last time vs Mulcair, that'd be a little like endorsing Kim Campbell as the next Conservative leader.

Mon, 2012-03-12 21:56

#40

socialdemocrati...

Boom Boom wrote:
The Liberal strategy is: fake left, go right.

This video is actually a great overview of the Liberal strategy over the past few elections, and how they intend to turn it around in 2015:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NmNObROcBOo

Mon, 2012-03-12 22:36

#41

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Debater there are other polls out that say the NDP is ahead. Spin it any way it out but don't try and pretend that only the polls you like are accurate.

Mon, 2012-03-12 22:40

#42

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Debater, further to my last comment above, it is lucky you have other people on this board with which to engage, otherwise you would quickly get bored with my feeble banter.

Mon, 2012-03-12 23:23

#43

Boom Boom

socialdemocraticmiddle wrote:

Boom Boom wrote:
The Liberal strategy is: fake left, go right.

This video is actually a great overview of the Liberal strategy over the past few elections, and how they intend to turn it around in 2015:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NmNObROcBOo

Can't download video on my dialup. What does it say, basically?

Mon, 2012-03-12 23:33

#44

Brachina

adma wrote:

Debater wrote:
I think the Libs need a leader from a younger generation with less baggage, but who also has appeal in Ontario and Québec, someone such as Dominic Léblanc, David McGuinty or Martin Cauchon. I hear all 3 men are planning to run, so that's what I'd like to see.

Given what happened to Cauchon that last time vs Mulcair, that'd be a little like endorsing Kim Campbell as the next Conservative leader.

Do you honestly think the other two will do any better then Martin Cauchon?

Fri, 2012-03-16 12:34

#45

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Latest poll, Abacus out today. Tories 38, NDP 28, Libs 20. BQ leads NDP 33 - 28 in Quebec. NDP well ahead of Libs on the Prairies. Again, this poll frankly is within the noise of polls from around the election, and I suspect suggests that overall, public opinion hasn't changed much, and with the right leader, Quebec numbers can be stronger. It appears clear the Libs are the real 3rd place party in Canadian poliitics. I'd like to see stonger NDP numbers, but given everything that has passed, and especially the MSM's love making with Rae, I'd say these are encouraging over all.

Fri, 2012-03-16 13:36

#46

NorthReport

Abacus Poll:

Cons - 37%

NDP - 28% (solidly in 2nd place without a permanet leader)

Libs - 20% (dead last)

Also the Libs are in 4th or dead last place in Quebec.

http://www.lfpress.com/news/canada/2012/03/16/19511416.html

Fri, 2012-03-16 15:37

#47

contrarianna

NorthReport wrote:

Abacus Poll:

Cons - 37%

NDP - 28% (solidly in 2nd place without a permanet leader)

Libs - 20% (dead last)

Also the Libs are in 4th or dead last place in Quebec.

http://www.lfpress.com/news/canada/2012/03/16/19511416.html

Given FPTP, a "solid 2nd" is the much prized front row viewing for the dismantaling of Canada by the "majority" Cons.

From the above story:

Quote:
OTTAWA - Opposition hysteria over voter mischief allegations has done nothing to dent Conservative popularity, says an exclusive national poll that shows the governing party trumping its rivals....

To paraphrase PT Barnum: "A voter is born every moment".

Fri, 2012-03-16 16:53

#48

Debater

NorthReport wrote:

Abacus Poll:

Cons - 37%

NDP - 28% (solidly in 2nd place without a permanet leader)

Libs - 20% (dead last)

Also the Libs are in 4th or dead last place in Quebec.

http://www.lfpress.com/news/canada/2012/03/16/19511416.html

Maybe they are and maybe they aren't. It's not valuable to cherry-pick polls.

The Liberals are higher in most of the other Québec polls, such as last week's Léger poll. And afterall, didn't you yourself say that we should give the Québec pollsters more credibility since they are more knowledgable about how to survey Québec?

Fri, 2012-03-16 16:56

#49

Ippurigakko

on EKOS pdf, Nice to see Ontario gains NDP 31% from last election 25% very close to Cons 34%.

Fri, 2012-03-16 16:59

#50

Debater

But if the NDP remains high in Ontario, doesn't that help the Conservatives?

Many would say it's a bad thing for the NDP to do well in Ontario (as in the last election) because it shifts Liberal seats to the Conservatives and helps them win majorities. 2011 is an example of that. This is the dilemma that the NDP and Liberals face.

Fri, 2012-03-16 17:09

#51

Stockholm

Here is the latest Ekos pdf that has the Tories at 35% and the NDP at 30%

http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/full_report_march_16_2012...

I have news for ou debater - if this poll is right and Tory support in ontario has plummeted 10 points to 34.6% and NDP support is up 5 points since the last election to 31.0% - the Tories WILL lose a ton of Ontario seats to the NDP.

Another Polling Threhad

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