Ontario Election June 7, 2018

As a further reminder to Mighty Middle of why the NDP support is growing and the Liberals are losing support, since you never seem to get it, I will repeat part of a post from the 2018 Ontario Polls thread (and in case you still don't get it - it's the issues, the lack of trust after so many broken promises and three years of austerity following a very left campaign that only changed when on the road to Damascus and damnation in the polls you realized Wynne was the most unpopular premier in the country):

The following poll suggests what is driving the rapid growth in NDP popularity and it's not simply strategic voting.

In this poll of "Which party is the best to deal with this issue?", the Liberals do not rank first on any issue with voters, while the NDP ranks first on: Healthcare, the most important issue; social assistance programs; education funding; investment in public transportation; aboriginal issues; improving tolerance for minorities; big cities issues; and new immigrant issues. Furthermore, momentum on these issues clearly favours the NDP.

The PCs are ahead on: economy and jobs; taxes; energy; crime and public safety; debt repayment and balanced budget; fighting corruption; rules for sale of marijuana; small town and rural issues; and small business issues. 

Click on the url below to see the above results in chart form. 

https://www.ipsos.com/en-ca/news-polls/Global-News-Ontario-Vote-Issues-M...

Mighty Middle wrote:

Mr. Magoo wrote:

Quote:

Horwath says no way to coalition with Wynne Liberals

Given the possibly hyperbolic comments about those damnable Liberals around here, I can't really see any way by which we could expect the NDP -- the last, best, most useless and corrupted (so I'm told) bulwark against everyone else -- to join forces with EVIL incarnate JBF (Just Because FORD!!!).

If Ontario (and that's me; that's where I am) has trouble deciding between Ford and the Liberals/Lieberals/Libranos/[insert_weak_pun] then that's the real problem from my point of view, and 51% of that problem would be that the only people who could help fix it -- my fellow Ontarians -- are the ones making it.  But that's electoral politics, yes?

and yet polling has shown Ford is attracting 20% of NDP voters.

You keep advancing this crap. It has been responded to in the past but you don't care and say it anyway.

NDP voters = people who USUALLY vote NDP. That is the only fair interpretation.

This is different than saying 20% of people who said they voted for the NDP in the last election.

This poll (of whatever accuracy) that you are taking as Gospel states that 20% of the people who in one given election considered Ford at the time of that poll. It is possible that they are no longer with Ford today anyway. (20% of the NDP vote last time is under 4% of the electorate.)

Here is where your BS logic leaves the building:

Each party has a core vote -- those would be NDP voters, Liberal Voters, Conservative voters etc. People normally voting for those parties. Then there is an independent group -- this includes people with no ideology or any other reason than party for voting a certain way. They can't be core and floating voters at the same time. And if they are floating how can you identify from a poll about one previous election which party to make a claim that they came from or belong to?

A chunk of these independents voted for the NDP in the past -- each party attracts one-time voters who cannot be considered "their" voters -- for strategy, a negative vote against a party, a specific policy, anger at a candidate etc. (including the really, really, really bad campaign the Conservatives ran in that election). Their motivations are diverse. Many Conservatives in the previous election were really angry at Hudak and some voted NDP as they hated the Liberals so much. There were stories about this at the time. So what if a chunk of those identified with Ford early on? These are not NDP voters. These are floating or strategic voters.

How can you say they were not "Conservative voters" voting for Horwath? If they were Conservative voters then, by your logic, now that they are voting Conservative, you want to call them NDP voters? So now, say they vote for Ford after all, in the following election if they go to the NDP would they be NDP voters coming home or Conservative voters voting NDP?

If you vote "A" 5 times in a row and "B" once, then "A" again are you a "B" voter voting "A"? Were you ever a "B" voter? If you then vote "A" again are you a disloyal "A" voter?

There is not a one time drift in loyalty for Ford: just a constant bleed from all parties to all parties among voters who are not loyal to a party -- not NDP voters, not Conservative voters and not Liberal voters. Each party has a number of voters who voted for a different party in the previous election and may vote for a different one in the next. The party with the most support at any given time, probably has the greatest percentage of these if you ask the question.

This is the point of elections.

These voters are the ones that make differences in elections -- not the ones who vote predictably. To suggest any change in where they are headed now is a bleed of the core vote of a party is a conclusion that can only be made by asking more than what a person voted for in the last election. It would need to understand why they did it and what their patterns were in previous elections.

Stop. Repeating. This. Bullshit.

jerrym wrote:

https://globalnews.ca/news/4211569/tom-parkin-andrea-horwath-momentum/

Which is written by a former NDP staffer, so this is hardly non-partisan.

Mighty Middle wrote:

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Stop. Repeating. This. Bullshit.

Then what about the polling from Doug Ford mayoral race that had him scooping up 20% of the NDP vote? Four years later it is still at 20%.

Same bullshit in a new flavour.

Once having voted for is not same as X voter.

Also Ford was not running as a party representative.

Mighty Middle wrote:

Re: Ford having 20% of NDP support

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Same bullshit in a new flavour.

Once having voted for is not same as X voter.

Also Ford was not running as a party representative.

Hey, I don't have to stop saying you are lying and trolling here as long as you are. You can stop either any time.

Just mentioning the 407 puts many Ontario drivers into a state of rage. If there was some collusion between a 407 employee and a political party, people are going to hit the roof. And what is bad for Ford is that 407 drivers are the exact kind of people he needs to win.

jerrym wrote:

In the first three polls of early April the Ontario NDP averaged 21% (18%, 21% and 24%) while the PCs averaged 44% (50%, 43% and 40%), leaving the NDP 23% behind Ford. Now they are 5% behind. In the immortal words of Yogi Berra, "It ain't over til it's over".

Then need to win either Southwestern Ontario, Eastern Ontario or  the 905

Quote:

Slogans such as the Fords’ “stop the gravy train” and Trump’s “drain the swamp” and “make America great again” may not have much substance, but they often stick when people are increasingly worried about their status in society.

It's hard to argue against this.  It's probably, sadly, true.

But I'd add a caveat:  these empty slogans become chants when unintelligent people are worried about their status in society.

Otherwise, how can we explain why no intelligent people seem to be saying "They closed the steel mill and gas is too expensive and Bruce Jenner is a chick now, so it's time to vote for whoever will build a giant wall to keep the Mexicans out of Montana"

Could Dougie win?  Yes, of course.  I've learned my lesson about saying "never" after Rob became the Mayor and The Donald became POTUS.  But if Ford's vacuous sloganeering wins hearts and minds, I won't pretend it was by any other means than tricking rubes. 

NorthReport wrote:

Is this for real?

WATCH: Ford grilled over allegations his party used 407 data for political gains

http://www.iheartradio.ca/newstalk-1010/news/was-information-stolen-from...

I think you are asking the wrong and very dangerous question.

Conservatives want a pro-business capital environment. Many do not care how they get it.

The better question would be -- "does it matter?"

It may or it may not. It is possible with the right promises, that Conservatives may not care. They are not the fairness and honesty party. They are the feed the greed party. When other parties think a scandal is all they need, they misunderstand the motivation of voters.

The sad truth is that I think for a left candidate to win people have to like that person. For a Conservative to win this is not required.

For a left person to win the people have to trust the competency of that person. For the right what matters if they trust the person to attack those things they dislike.

This comes down to the fact that the left requires some confidence to be put into public good and government. the right only needs to channel anger at the government and if there is enough of that, people do not care if they like or think the person will do a good job.

It is easier to tear down than build up. People know this. You need to make a strong case for active government.

Look at the history of personalities -- people choose mean people to tear down and likeable people to build up. What works for Conservatives is not the same as what works for parties running on being progressive (whether they really are or not).

For the most part the Liberals sell to the left so what is true about left parties is also true about Liberals. Being mean and angry just does not do as well on the left. Layton got to understand this during his career. Mulcair never did.

This is also the reason left parties over-estimate the damage a scandal will do on the right and underestimate the damage it will do on the left.

All this is universal: the scandals Trump is facing are hurting -- but he is still around 40%. A democrat would be at 20. The Ford scandals woudl sink the NDP at this point but they may not matter to the Conservatives.

Conservatives do not like or trust ethically any government and so they do not need to like or trust ethically their candidates. They just need to know that the Conservative would punish the people they hate, cut government and taxes and deliver the wealth to the wealthy.

NorthReport wrote:

I wonder if this brewing scandal is part of Patrick Brown’s revenge

Good question

Lock him up! Lock him up!