2018 Polls

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Tue, 2018-06-12 12:44

Sean in Ottawa

voice of the damned wrote:

gadar wrote:

Watch the Liberals getting wiped off the map after the recession hits and NDP will stand to gain.

Why would it neccessarily be the NDP gaining in the event of a recession?

I think that was sarcasm.

In fact Trump just gave Trudeau a possible get-out-of-jail- free-card on the economy.

It will be easier for the Liberals to say that Trump was the cause of any downturn and not their policies. Even of a deficit. The support for the pipeline to tidewater, could even increase as people say that anything that reduces reliance on trade with the US is urgent.

Tue, 2018-06-12 12:49

#553

Sean in Ottawa

Sure 22 is better than 14.... But still not significant yet. High 20s will be meaningful.

It is also not clear what is due to the leader or due to other circumstances.

Trudeau will likely align himself very well with most Canadians in reacting to Trump -- if this is the main story for the next year -- and there is nothing to suggest it would not be -- Trudeau could end up gaining considerable ground.

It is also possible that the NDP could gain some modest ground on the Liberals while the Liberals gain more on the Conservatives through this story. Or the Liberals might gain on all others. This could be the ultimate in distractions for Trudeau.

Tue, 2018-06-12 12:55

(Reply to #553) #554

gadar

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

voice of the damned wrote:

gadar wrote:

Watch the Liberals getting wiped off the map after the recession hits and NDP will stand to gain.

Why would it neccessarily be the NDP gaining in the event of a recession?

I think that was sarcasm.

In fact Trump just gave Trudeau a possible get-out-of-jail- free-card on the economy.

It will be easier for the Liberals to say that Trump was the cause of any downturn and not their policies. Even of a deficit. The support for the pipeline to tidewater, could even increase as people say that anything that reduces reliance on trade with the US is urgent.

No sarcasm at all. When recession hits (as Peter Mckay said in the Toronto Sun) the Liberals will lose support and the lost support will go to the opposition parties and one of the major opposition parties is the NDP. So the NDP stands to gain. Go NDP

Tue, 2018-06-12 13:02

(Reply to #554) #555

Sean in Ottawa

gadar wrote:

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

voice of the damned wrote:

gadar wrote:

Watch the Liberals getting wiped off the map after the recession hits and NDP will stand to gain.

Why would it neccessarily be the NDP gaining in the event of a recession?

I think that was sarcasm.

In fact Trump just gave Trudeau a possible get-out-of-jail- free-card on the economy.

It will be easier for the Liberals to say that Trump was the cause of any downturn and not their policies. Even of a deficit. The support for the pipeline to tidewater, could even increase as people say that anything that reduces reliance on trade with the US is urgent.

No sarcasm at all. When recession hits (as Peter Mckay said in the Toronto Sun) the Liberals will lose support and the lost support will go to the opposition parties and one of the major opposition parties is the NDP. So the NDP stands to gain. Go NDP

Bad assumption then. Trudeau will have an excuse for his recession. There was one coming and now he will not get all the blame for it.

Tue, 2018-06-12 13:11

(Reply to #555) #556

gadar

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Bad assumption then. Trudeau will have an excuse for his recession. There was one coming and now he will not get all the blame for it.

You agree that he will get some of the blame for it. And thats why he will lose support and NDP will gain. Go Singh

Tue, 2018-06-12 13:18

(Reply to #556) #557

Sean in Ottawa

gadar wrote:

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Bad assumption then. Trudeau will have an excuse for his recession. There was one coming and now he will not get all the blame for it.

You agree that he will get some of the blame for it. And thats why he will lose support and NDP will gain. Go Singh

No, he will be blamed by the poeple who would never hjave voted for him anyway.

You need him to face trouble form people who are potential supporters and they are more likely to gather around him in solidarity over this. Even NDP and Conservative supporters may not blame him much. Most think that there is nobody who could have done better than he did on trade with the US since Trump canot be reasoned with.

Tue, 2018-06-12 13:22

(Reply to #557) #558

gadar

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

gadar wrote:

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Bad assumption then. Trudeau will have an excuse for his recession. There was one coming and now he will not get all the blame for it.

You agree that he will get some of the blame for it. And thats why he will lose support and NDP will gain. Go Singh

No, he will be blamed by the poeple who would never hjave voted for him anyway.

You need him to face trouble form people who are potential supporters and they are more likely to gather around him in solidarity over this. Even NDP and Conservative supporters may not blame him much. Most think that there is nobody who could have done better than he did on trade with the US since Trump canot be reasoned with.

This is the trouble with replying to people who dont agree with your posts. You end up in a discussion and people end up proving the unhinged from reality and propaganda one liners wrong.

I am still learning tho, I will hopefully learn from this lesson and just ignore the people who disagree with me.

Or better I should have just called you a Liberal propagandist and be done with it.

Wed, 2018-06-13 00:51

#559

gadar

No polls today? As I said the polls are probably showing the Liberals behind the NDP, thats why the pollsters are not releasing them. They will wait until they get a poll that shows the Liberals ahead of the NDP and then we will hear all the Liberals on these boards (we all know who they are) cheering the poll. But what about all the polls that were held back because they showed Liberals behind.

Wed, 2018-06-13 10:02

#560

josh

What is this, some sort of performance art? Gadar as NR?

BTW, NR really stands for No Response.

Wed, 2018-06-13 12:11

(Reply to #560) #561

Pondering

gadar wrote:

Only a matter of time that the colossal marijuana fail starts reflecting in the polls. Employers are not ready for legalization. Get used to the sound of Prime Minister Singh.

http://vancouversun.com/pmn/news-pmn/canada-news-pmn/many-employers-not-...

What's to get ready for? What are they going to do? Drop safety regulations due to reduced alcohol consumption?

https://globalnews.ca/news/3916671/people-will-choose-legal-marijuana-ov...

Wed, 2018-06-13 13:03

(Reply to #561) #562

Sean in Ottawa

gadar wrote:

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

gadar wrote:

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Bad assumption then. Trudeau will have an excuse for his recession. There was one coming and now he will not get all the blame for it.

You agree that he will get some of the blame for it. And thats why he will lose support and NDP will gain. Go Singh

No, he will be blamed by the poeple who would never hjave voted for him anyway.

You need him to face trouble form people who are potential supporters and they are more likely to gather around him in solidarity over this. Even NDP and Conservative supporters may not blame him much. Most think that there is nobody who could have done better than he did on trade with the US since Trump canot be reasoned with.

This is the trouble with replying to people who dont agree with your posts. You end up in a discussion and people end up proving the unhinged from reality and propaganda one liners wrong.

I am still learning tho, I will hopefully learn from this lesson and just ignore the people who disagree with me.

Or better I should have just called you a Liberal propagandist and be done with it.

What. The. Fuck.

I guess I should apologize if I in any way suggested that I thought your posting here was in order to contribute to a discussion.

Anyway there are a few people here who do not want any disagreement and want someone to kiss their posts and never disagree. I will put you in that camp. I won't indulge though as I think everyone is free to respond to anything they like. If you want special rules for your posts you are in the wrong place.

And yes I realize that there are a couple other assholes and trolls here who are just like this. I feel no need to coddle people like this.

If you just want validation and it to be all about you and no disagreement -- go get a massage and don't bother posting to a political site.

If you really and truly think I am a Liberal kindly and in the most polite fashion go and make love to yourself.

Wed, 2018-06-13 15:36

(Reply to #562) #563

gadar

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

What. The. Fuck.

I guess I should apologize if I in any way suggested that I thought your posting here was in order to contribute to a discussion.

Anyway there are a few people here who do not want any disagreement and want someone to kiss their posts and never disagree. I will put you in that camp. I won't indulge though as I think everyone is free to respond to anything they like. If you want special rules for your posts you are in the wrong place.

And yes I realize that there are a couple other assholes and trolls here who are just like this. I feel no need to coddle people like this.

If you just want validation and it to be all about you and no disagreement -- go get a massage and don't bother posting to a political site.

If you really and truly think I am a Liberal kindly and in the most polite fashion go and make love to yourself.

I wish everybody who does crap I like did for the last few days is treated the same way.

I applaud your response. My original post deserves all the disdain and F bombs.

Now anybody who posts in the manner should be told off the same way as I have just been.

But how does one tell somebody to f off when the somebody doesnt even make an effort to engage, and just throws bullshit labels around in one line responses.

Go NDP the next government of Canada. And Jagmeet Singh the next PM. Get used to it.

Wed, 2018-06-13 15:50

#564

NorthReport

Atlantic support for Trudeau's Liberals hits new low: survey

https://www.thestar.com/halifax/2018/06/12/atlantic-support-for-federal-...

Wed, 2018-06-13 16:23

#565

NorthReport

Thu, 2018-06-14 14:44

(Reply to #565) #566

JKR

NorthReport wrote:

Atlantic support for Trudeau's Liberals hits new low: survey

https://www.thestar.com/halifax/2018/06/12/atlantic-support-for-federal-...

Liberal: 40%
Conservative: 29%
NDP: 15%
Green: 5%

Thu, 2018-06-14 15:46

(Reply to #566) #567

gadar

JKR wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

Atlantic support for Trudeau's Liberals hits new low: survey

https://www.thestar.com/halifax/2018/06/12/atlantic-support-for-federal-...

Liberal: 40%
Conservative: 29%
NDP: 15%
Green: 5%

Well that is low but I dont think the Liberals will mind getting such a low number in the next election.

Thu, 2018-06-14 17:32

(Reply to #567) #568

josh

JKR wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

Atlantic support for Trudeau's Liberals hits new low: survey

https://www.thestar.com/halifax/2018/06/12/atlantic-support-for-federal-...

Liberal: 40%
Conservative: 29%
NDP: 15%
Green: 5%

You’re ruining NR’s buzz.

Thu, 2018-06-14 18:00

#569

JKR

Buzz?!? Is that what it's called?

Fri, 2018-06-15 12:04

#570

josh

Angust Reid:

L 36

C 32

NDP 16

http://angusreid.org/federal-issues-june2018/

Fri, 2018-06-15 15:25

(Reply to #570) #571

gadar

josh wrote:

Angust Reid:

L 36

C 32

NDP 16

http://angusreid.org/federal-issues-june2018/

At least 5 percent off of the real numbers.

Fri, 2018-06-15 15:46

#572

progressive17 progressive17's picture

How do you know what the "real numbers" are?

Fri, 2018-06-15 15:48

(Reply to #572) #573

gadar

progressive17 wrote:

How do you know what the "real numbers" are?

I just know, call it my hunch, my political acumen or whatever you wish.

Fri, 2018-06-15 15:49

#574

progressive17 progressive17's picture

Well, you don't know. A hunch is not knowledge. Acumen is not knowledge.

Fri, 2018-06-15 20:09

(Reply to #574) #575

Ken Burch

Mighty Middle wrote:

SocialJustice101 wrote:

I doubt we'll see NorthReport posting any Nanos polls after the Ontario Election. It'll be back to Forum and Mainstreet, the 2 most discredited pollsters in Canada.

Watch for Forum and Mainstreet to have the federal NDP in second (behind the Conservatives and ahead of the Liberals) just like in they had in the Ontario election weeks prior to the writ being dropped.

The momentum for the NDP was kicked off in part by Forum and Mainstreet having the NDP in second, thus creating the media narrative that the NDP is only party to stop Ford. But all it will do is split the vote and allow Ford to come up the middle and win.

Which is what Forum and Mainstreet wanted all along.

The polls didn't start the momentum for the ONDP. The voters did that by throwing their support to them, and the Liberals did it by collapsing. There was no way the OLP was going to finish second this election, and there was especially no way they would ever have been close enough to the PC's in support that they could have come from behind to win.

You are getting very very close to claiming that the NDP's very existence is some sort of a right-wing conspiracy. Do stop before you make yourselves ridiculous by actually claiming that. The NDP exist and win the votes they win because a lot of voters don't feel they should have to accept the idea that the only choice they should get at the polls is between the Liberals and the Conservatives. You're never going to browbeat the people who see things that way into recanting that idea as though it were some sort of heresy. And as to Ontario, it's been repeatedly proven that there's no way a lower vote share for the ONDP and a higher vote share for the OLP would have stopped Ford...especially in the 905, where the ONDP won 11 seats and the OLP won none(and, as far as I know, didn't come remotely close to winning in any riding in the area).

At some point you're going to have to accept that the ONDP gains were legitimate, and that there was nowhere where "strategic" ONDP support for the OLP candidates would have denied Ford a majority).

Pollsters can't make voters swing away from a party they weren't already swinging away from, and the OLP was 20 points down BEFORE the ONDP surge. You can't delegitimize reality.

Fri, 2018-06-15 20:53

(Reply to #575) #576

MapleInTheEye

Ken Burch wrote:

Mighty Middle wrote:

SocialJustice101 wrote:

I doubt we'll see NorthReport posting any Nanos polls after the Ontario Election. It'll be back to Forum and Mainstreet, the 2 most discredited pollsters in Canada.

Watch for Forum and Mainstreet to have the federal NDP in second (behind the Conservatives and ahead of the Liberals) just like in they had in the Ontario election weeks prior to the writ being dropped.

The momentum for the NDP was kicked off in part by Forum and Mainstreet having the NDP in second, thus creating the media narrative that the NDP is only party to stop Ford. But all it will do is split the vote and allow Ford to come up the middle and win.

Which is what Forum and Mainstreet wanted all along.

The polls didn't start the momentum for the ONDP. The voters did that by throwing their support to them, and the Liberals did it by collapsing. There was no way the OLP was going to finish second this election, and there was especially no way they would ever have been close enough to the PC's in support that they could have come from behind to win.

You are getting very very close to claiming that the NDP's very existence is some sort of a right-wing conspiracy. Do stop before you make yourselves ridiculous by actually claiming that. The NDP exist and win the votes they win because a lot of voters don't feel they should have to accept the idea that the only choice they should get at the polls is between the Liberals and the Conservatives. You're never going to browbeat the people who see things that way into recanting that idea as though it were some sort of heresy. And as to Ontario, it's been repeatedly proven that there's no way a lower vote share for the ONDP and a higher vote share for the OLP would have stopped Ford...especially in the 905, where the ONDP won 11 seats and the OLP won none(and, as far as I know, didn't come remotely close to winning in any riding in the area).

At some point you're going to have to accept that the ONDP gains were legitimate, and that there was nowhere where "strategic" ONDP support for the OLP candidates would have denied Ford a majority).

Pollsters can't make voters swing away from a party they weren't already swinging away from, and the OLP was 20 points down BEFORE the ONDP surge. You can't delegitimize reality.

Why argue over the past? I identify as one of these voters who will swing between Liberal and NDP depending on the election and the issues the campaign is formed around, and the context in which the campaign is ran.

In this election, I felt the Liberals deserved to lose. I don't hate the party in any way, shape, or form. It made grave errors and mistakes and needed to be shown the door. I didn't quite think 7 seats needed to be the punishment, but what is done is done. FWIW, I did not believe 905'ers would actually BELIEVE what Dougie was saying and be that convinced. Some people are so gullible. I was hoping the Liberals would hang onto enough in the 905 to at least form official party, let the NDP rise, and keep Dougie from his glorious majority by forcing the NDP and Liberals to work together. OR have an NDP majority government while the Liberals at least held onto official party status. I suppose that is impossible with FPTP?

I genuinely supported the NDP in this past election. But that means nothing come 4 years from now. We will see what happens. No one owns anyone's vote. The least attractive think about the NDP this past election was when Horwath came out and said she couldn't work with Liberals. Really? If they had 10 seats and you had 55 as an NDP leader, you wouldn't take that and wouldn't work with them and would force an election?!? Really? That was low for Horwath. There's a progressive cause that is higher than allowing Dougie to win. But I guess its immaterial.

It is too bad the conservatives couldn't have lost. I would have loved seeing the faces of Ontario conservatives lose another election. The party might have split apart. It was already ripping itself up in the months before the election. But the 905 speaks, and the 905 rules...

Sat, 2018-06-16 04:38

(Reply to #576) #577

JKR

Ken Burch wrote:

You are getting very very close to claiming that the NDP's very existence is some sort of a right-wing conspiracy.

I wouldn't go anywhere that far but it does seem to me that at the federal level and in many provinces the right does try to support the splitting of the left of centre vote as much as they can. I think the Ontario PC's are very happy the Liberal vote increased toward the end of the election and helped reduce the NDP vote which in turn helped prevent a minority situation and helped the PC's get a majority of the seats. After the 2015 federal election many Conservatives admitted that to hang on to power they were counting on a much more even split between the NDP and Liberals. I think the right often goes easy on the NDP in order to split the left of centre vote in order to give the right a better chance at winning elections. Here in BC the provincial NDP does go easy on the provincial Conservatives for the same reason - they want them to split the right of centre vote with the BC Liberals. Unfortunately the right seems to know how to play FPTP politics better than the left here in BC, except for 1996, and by election eve they seem to always solidly back one party, the BC Liberals nowadays and the BC Socreds previously. With the BC NDP and Greens in a quasi-coalition it will be interesting to see how NDP/ Green vote splitting affects future BC elections. In any case, the BC Liberals will probably do as much as they can to support NDP-Green vote splitting in future elections here in BC. In the last BC election the BC Liberals seemed to go easy on the Greens. Fortunately, if we get PR in BC this year, the FPTP vote-splitting strategy will no longer be relevant here anymore.

Sat, 2018-06-16 13:47

(Reply to #577) #578

Ken Burch

JKR wrote:
Ken Burch wrote:

You are getting very very close to claiming that the NDP's very existence is some sort of a right-wing conspiracy.

I wouldn't go anywhere that far but it does seem to me that at the federal level and in many provinces the right does try to support the splitting of the left of centre vote as much as they can. I think the Ontario PC's are very happy the Liberal vote increased toward the end of the election and helped reduce the NDP vote which in turn helped prevent a minority situation and helped the PC's get a majority of the seats. After the 2015 federal election many Conservatives admitted that to hang on to power they were counting on a much more even split between the NDP and Liberals. I think the right often goes easy on the NDP in order to split the left of centre vote in order to give the right a better chance at winning elections. Here in BC the provincial NDP does go easy on the provincial Conservatives for the same reason - they want them to split the right of centre vote with the BC Liberals. Unfortunately the right seems to know how to play FPTP politics better than the left here in BC, except for 1996, and by election eve they seem to always solidly back one party, the BC Liberals nowadays and the BC Socreds previously. With the BC NDP and Greens in a quasi-coalition it will be interesting to see how NDP/ Green vote splitting affects future BC elections. In any case, the BC Liberals will probably do as much as they can to support NDP-Green vote splitting in future elections here in BC. In the last BC election the BC Liberals seemed to go easy on the Greens. Fortunately, if we get PR in BC this year, the FPTP vote-splitting strategy will no longer be relevant here anymore.

OK, yes, the right does always try to split the votes of those who aren't part of the right. But that wasn't what 2011 federally or 2018 in Ontario were about.

In both cases, you had a right-wing party whose support was increasing, and a totally discredited Liberal party which fell apart all on its own during the campaign.

It wouldn't have stopped the Right, in either case, for everyone to say "ok, this has to be a year when the NDP vote isn't ALLOWED to increase, and in fact that NDP has a special duty to fall on its sword". There was simply no possibility in either situation in which a poor showing by the NDP would have prevented the Right from winning a majority.

Also, there isn't an absolute correlation between an increase in the NDP vote and a victory for the most right-wing party.

IN 1963 and 1965, the NDP vote rose and the PC's were defeated both times, as the PC's were defeated in an election where the NDP vote share increased in 1968 and 1980. With the massive decline in the PC vote in 1993, the NDP vote share was irrelevant, and the Reform Party was solidly beaten in 1997 when the NDP vote rose.

What you've got is correlation without causation. The NDP vote rose in years where the PC's or the federal Cons won...but it cannot be established that the PC's or the Cons would have lost if the NDP vote had stayed the same or had declined.

And in any case, you can't really expect all progressives to vote Liberal(I notice you never mention any duty of Liberal voters to vote NDP in NDP-Con marginals where the Liberal candidate is clearly out of contention) until either FPTP is established or the Conservative Party votes to dissolve itself.

And at the end of this campaign, it was the Ontario Liberals, not the NDP, who guaranteed a PC victory by making a point of treating the NDP as just as bad as the PC's. B

Sat, 2018-06-16 13:50

(Reply to #578) #579

Ken Burch

MapleInTheEye wrote:

Ken Burch wrote:

Mighty Middle wrote:

SocialJustice101 wrote:

I doubt we'll see NorthReport posting any Nanos polls after the Ontario Election. It'll be back to Forum and Mainstreet, the 2 most discredited pollsters in Canada.

Watch for Forum and Mainstreet to have the federal NDP in second (behind the Conservatives and ahead of the Liberals) just like in they had in the Ontario election weeks prior to the writ being dropped.

The momentum for the NDP was kicked off in part by Forum and Mainstreet having the NDP in second, thus creating the media narrative that the NDP is only party to stop Ford. But all it will do is split the vote and allow Ford to come up the middle and win.

Which is what Forum and Mainstreet wanted all along.

The polls didn't start the momentum for the ONDP. The voters did that by throwing their support to them, and the Liberals did it by collapsing. There was no way the OLP was going to finish second this election, and there was especially no way they would ever have been close enough to the PC's in support that they could have come from behind to win.

You are getting very very close to claiming that the NDP's very existence is some sort of a right-wing conspiracy. Do stop before you make yourselves ridiculous by actually claiming that. The NDP exist and win the votes they win because a lot of voters don't feel they should have to accept the idea that the only choice they should get at the polls is between the Liberals and the Conservatives. You're never going to browbeat the people who see things that way into recanting that idea as though it were some sort of heresy. And as to Ontario, it's been repeatedly proven that there's no way a lower vote share for the ONDP and a higher vote share for the OLP would have stopped Ford...especially in the 905, where the ONDP won 11 seats and the OLP won none(and, as far as I know, didn't come remotely close to winning in any riding in the area).

At some point you're going to have to accept that the ONDP gains were legitimate, and that there was nowhere where "strategic" ONDP support for the OLP candidates would have denied Ford a majority).

Pollsters can't make voters swing away from a party they weren't already swinging away from, and the OLP was 20 points down BEFORE the ONDP surge. You can't delegitimize reality.

Why argue over the past? I identify as one of these voters who will swing between Liberal and NDP depending on the election and the issues the campaign is formed around, and the context in which the campaign is ran.

In this election, I felt the Liberals deserved to lose. I don't hate the party in any way, shape, or form. It made grave errors and mistakes and needed to be shown the door. I didn't quite think 7 seats needed to be the punishment, but what is done is done. FWIW, I did not believe 905'ers would actually BELIEVE what Dougie was saying and be that convinced. Some people are so gullible. I was hoping the Liberals would hang onto enough in the 905 to at least form official party, let the NDP rise, and keep Dougie from his glorious majority by forcing the NDP and Liberals to work together. OR have an NDP majority government while the Liberals at least held onto official party status. I suppose that is impossible with FPTP?

I genuinely supported the NDP in this past election. But that means nothing come 4 years from now. We will see what happens. No one owns anyone's vote. The least attractive think about the NDP this past election was when Horwath came out and said she couldn't work with Liberals. Really? If they had 10 seats and you had 55 as an NDP leader, you wouldn't take that and wouldn't work with them and would force an election?!? Really? That was low for Horwath. There's a progressive cause that is higher than allowing Dougie to win. But I guess its immaterial.

It is too bad the conservatives couldn't have lost. I would have loved seeing the faces of Ontario conservatives lose another election. The party might have split apart. It was already ripping itself up in the months before the election. But the 905 speaks, and the 905 rules...

One thing is clear with the 905...given that the Liberals, on a more centrist program than the ONDP won no seats in that area code(did they even come CLOSE to winning any?), it wouldn't have made any difference if the ONDP hadn't contested those seats or if it had but on a more centrist program. Nobody was going to be won over by a "will do what Doug would do, but we'll be nicer about it" approach.

Sat, 2018-06-16 18:27

#580

Ken Burch

(self-delete. Realized I'd made a promise I couldn't be sure I could keep).

Sat, 2018-06-16 14:36

(Reply to #580) #581

JKR

Ken Burch wrote:

And in any case, you can't really expect all progressives to vote Liberal(I notice you never mention any duty of Liberal voters to vote NDP in NDP-Con marginals where the Liberal candidate is clearly out of contention) until either FPTP is established or the Conservative Party votes to dissolve itself.

And at the end of this campaign, it was the Ontario Liberals, not the NDP, who guaranteed a PC victory by making a point of treating the NDP as just as bad as the PC's.

I don't expect progressives to vote for any particular party. I also agree that political plurality is far more preferable than a two-party system like FPTP. My point is that FPTP cannot provide democratic results for elections that have more than two candidates and that the only solution to the problem of FPTP is electoral reform, either in the form of PR or instant runoff voting. I think that strategic voting is part and parcel of FPTP and we're going to be stuck with strategic voting campaigns on the left as long as we have FPTP.

Sat, 2018-06-16 18:26

(Reply to #581) #582

Ken Burch

JKR wrote:
Ken Burch wrote:
And in any case, you can't really expect all progressives to vote Liberal(I notice you never mention any duty of Liberal voters to vote NDP in NDP-Con marginals where the Liberal candidate is clearly out of contention) until either FPTP is established or the Conservative Party votes to dissolve itself. And at the end of this campaign, it was the Ontario Liberals, not the NDP, who guaranteed a PC victory by making a point of treating the NDP as just as bad as the PC's.
I don't expect progressives to vote for any particular party. I also agree that political plurality is far more preferable than a two-party system like FPTP. My point is that FPTP cannot provide democratic results for elections that have more than two candidates and that the only solution to the problem of FPTP is electoral reform, either in the form of PR or instant runoff voting. I think that strategic voting is part and parcel of FPTP and we're going to be stuck with strategic voting campaigns on the left as long as we have FPTP.

With you on electoral reform. And I'm not absolutely opposed to strategic voting...just saying it needs to be handled on a level of mutual respect and parity of esteem of the parties involved...that it needs to be an absolute agreement that supporters of WHICHEVER party seemed to be in third place in a particular riding should vote for the leading anti-Tory party...and that the first piece of legislation introduced and passed by a legislature or parliament elected on "strategic" voting must be a bill guaranteeing that some form of pr will be used at the next election, no matter when that election was held.

Mon, 2018-06-18 13:27

#583

NorthReport

Liberals down 4% and NDP has now closed the gap to 12% with the Liberals as these 2 parties fight it out for 2nd place

Cons 36%

Libs 32%

NDP 20%

https://globalnews.ca/news/4280029/justin-trudeau-approval-donald-trump-trade/

Mon, 2018-06-18 14:02

#584

progressive17 progressive17's picture

As Aristotle wrote, a "Cause" is the answer to a "Why Question". Baysian Causality involves mathematics I doubt that many of you could manage. However, we can sometimes say that the cause and the effect are one entity, and causality is asymmetrically distributed between them.

However we have to go back to Aristotle's definition and examine that carefully. An experiment only needs to render a cause and effect when the observer demands to know the cause. Blinded by the refusal to accept there could be metaphysically, scientifically, and physically no cause at all, the demander of the cause will continue running experiments at great cost to the world, and with no point at all.

Causality is only an answer to a question. It does not exist in reality at all.

Mon, 2018-06-18 17:32

(Reply to #584) #585

bekayne

NorthReport wrote:

Liberals down 4% and NDP has now closed the gap to 12% with the Liberals as these 2 parties fight it out for 2nd place

Cons 36%

Libs 32%

NDP 20%

https://globalnews.ca/news/4280029/justin-trudeau-approval-donald-trump-trade/

What?

Mon, 2018-06-18 17:50

(Reply to #585) #586

josh

bekayne wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

Liberals down 4% and NDP has now closed the gap to 12% with the Liberals as these 2 parties fight it out for 2nd place

Cons 36%

Libs 32%

NDP 20%

https://globalnews.ca/news/4280029/justin-trudeau-approval-donald-trump-trade/

What?

It’s NR.

Mon, 2018-06-18 20:07

(Reply to #586) #587

JKR

bekayne wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

Liberals down 4% and NDP has now closed the gap to 12% with the Liberals as these 2 parties fight it out for 2nd place

Cons 36%

Libs 32%

NDP 20%

https://globalnews.ca/news/4280029/justin-trudeau-approval-donald-trump-trade/

What?

For no apparent reason first place has been unnecessarily and unrealistically ceded to the Conservatives!

Mon, 2018-06-18 20:29

#588

NorthReport

Gee, do you think Canadians might be feeling the same way!

American Public Does Not See Celebrity Candidates as the Answer

https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-polls/american-public-does-not-see-cele...

Mon, 2018-06-18 20:43

(Reply to #588) #589

JKR

NorthReport wrote:

Gee, do you think Canadians might be feeling the same way!

American Public Does Not See Celebrity Candidates as the Answer

https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-polls/american-public-does-not-see-cele...

Canadians wouldn't support Justin Bieber for PM?!?

Mon, 2018-06-18 20:56

#590

NorthReport

Our celebrity Pipeline King Trudeau might lose a seat in Chicoutimi tonite!

Mon, 2018-06-18 21:36

(Reply to #590) #591

gadar

bekayne wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

Liberals down 4% and NDP has now closed the gap to 12% with the Liberals as these 2 parties fight it out for 2nd place

Cons 36%

Libs 32%

NDP 20%

https://globalnews.ca/news/4280029/justin-trudeau-approval-donald-trump-trade/

What?

The true cheer is for the Cons being in first place. The NDP within 12 percentage points of the Liberals is more important that NDP being within 16 points of the first place. The highest hoped result for the NDP is official opposition. Wanting them to beat the Cons doesnt even cross the mind, maybe its not the desired result.

Mon, 2018-06-18 21:37

#592

gadar

Will this affect the polls

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/marijauna-bill-house-vote-1.4711131

Mon, 2018-06-18 21:38

#593

gadar

This?

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/federal-court-lgbtq-landmark-decision-1....

Mon, 2018-06-18 21:40

#594

gadar

How US tariffs on cars could hit canadians, how would hit the polls

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/u-s-tariffs-cars-autos-canada-1.4710077

Mon, 2018-06-18 21:43

#595

gadar

And somebody just yesterday posted that I was hoping for a vote split so that Cons win. Exhibit for wanting a vote split is just posted upthread. Take a look at that. As I have said many times before the orange mask sometimes slips for a glimmer of blue underneath.

Mon, 2018-06-18 21:45

#596

gadar

This would move NDP even closer to the Liberals. Fight for the official opposition is on. Go NDP Go Singh

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/morneau-pension-bill-cleared-1.4710721

Mon, 2018-06-18 21:50

#597

NorthReport

These election results are a disaster for our Pipeline King PM. If Trump's attack on Trudeau was supposed to help Trudeau politically, not seeing much signs of it tonite in these results, eh! I know there are local factors at play here, but I still think the Liberals are in trouble.

Mon, 2018-06-18 22:05

(Reply to #597) #598

gadar

Down 2 percent or down 21 percent. Which one is a disaster.

Mon, 2018-06-18 22:11

#599

NorthReport

So the Cons have gained about 38% on the Liberals!

Party / 2015 / 2018 / Difference

Cons / 16.6% / 52.6% / Up 36%

Libs 31.09% / 29.3% / Down 1.79%

Mon, 2018-06-18 22:41

#600

gadar

SO if we extrapolate these results to the next federal election, which is most likely to happen

Liberal 39.5 less 2 equals 37

Cons 31.9 plus 36 equals 68

So it will be 68 to 37 in the 2019 federal election. That will show the pipeline PM who the boss is.

Go NDP Go Singh

Mon, 2018-06-18 22:42

(Reply to #600) #601

JKR

NorthReport wrote:

So the Cons have gained about 38% on the Liberals!

Party / 2015 / 2018 / Difference

Cons / 16.6% / 52.6% / Up 36%

Libs 31.09% / 29.3% / Down 1.79%

Whoooooopppeeeeeeee! Scheer for PM!!!

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